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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 280050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 553 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND HANGING
AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND TOMORROW
THEY WILL BE SUNNY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
10 ABOVE ZERO IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
PERSISTING ACROSS LOCAL AREA. DEPARTING MID LEVEL COLD CORE WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ROBUST LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BRING AN
END TO LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. JUST
SOME MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY EVENING
TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED MINS FROM 10 TO 15
STILL APPEAR REASONABLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST ELEMENTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DRY CP AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRETCH EASTWARD THROUGH 
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA 
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AS DRY ADVECTION/BACKING 
LOW LEVEL FLOW ENDS LAKE RESPONSE. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AS BL 
DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR 
APPRECIABLE LONGWAVE FLUX AND PLUMMETING TEMPS. WENT CLOSE TO 
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUS 
FCST. COULD BE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS 
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER KEPT MOST AREAS AT 10F OR HIGHER AS RIDGE AXIS 
WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS 
WILL PRECLUDE MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL 
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S...AND 
AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED W/ HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE TRAIN WILL BE LEAVING THE TUNNEL OF COLD AIR AND ON ITS WAY TO 
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT BEFORE WE GET 
THERE...STILL A FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH. 

SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH THE LAST OF THE 
"COLDER" ONES POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUN NGT. 
TRAILING FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT BE OVERLY RICH IN 
MOISTURE. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH IT...ESPECIALLY NW HALF...TO 
WARRANT LIKELY POPS SUNDAY. WITH TEMPS STARTING WELL BELOW 
FREEZING...MAY BE A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN IN THE MORNING 
MAINLY NE AND ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. NEITHER SETUP 
SHOULD YIELD MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS TO WORRY ABOUT. 

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL WILL BEING TO 
RELAX AND EVENTUALLY SHOW SIGNS OF A SOMEWHAT LONGER STRETCH OF 
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS LONGWAVE 
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL SETUP MID 
WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT 
HAVE KEPT THINGS RESERVED AT THIS POINT WITH QUESTIONS AS TO HOW 
FAST THE RETURN FLOW CAN SETUP. MEX GUIDANCE COMING IN WITH SOLID 
60S TUES THROUGH THURS AND WHILE TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST WE WILL 
FINALLY HEAD BACK THAT WAY...FRONTAL POSITION AND ANY PRECIP 
POTENTIAL COLD CAUSE RATHER LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENTS 
INITIALLY WITH MEN GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWING THIS NICELY AS A 
15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL EXISTS. HAVE STAYED IN 
MID-UPR 50S FOR NOW WITH HOPE LATER FORECASTS CAN WARM THINGS UP 
FURTHER. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT
KSBN...BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM TAF MENTION DUE TO ANTICIPATED
SHORT DURATION. CHANCES OF ANY HIGHER END MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE 01Z-02Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SLOW EROSION OF DEEP
MIXED LAYER FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TO PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD SEE
SPEEDS SETTLE AROUND 5 KNOTS TOWARD 03Z. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO
PERSIST FOR SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI

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