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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 242320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF 
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE 
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z 
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL 
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT 
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW 
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND 
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN 
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB 
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE 
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A 
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE 
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT 
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS 
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF 
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE 
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST. 

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID 
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO 
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE 
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK 
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA 
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD 
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF 
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH 
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE 
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY 
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY 
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE 
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... 
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS 
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE 
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE 
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS 
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C. 
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE 
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. LEFT IN A ROUGHLY 8 HOUR
WINDOW OF FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT ACTUAL DURATION WILL
LIKELY BE SHORTER AND CAN BE FURTHER REFINED WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
AROUND 11-13Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BR DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SCOUR OUT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD

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