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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 262202
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
602 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN 
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY. 

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT 
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK 
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED 
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE 
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD 
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING 
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS 
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT 
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST 
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO 
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER 
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS 
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO 
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER 
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS 
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER 
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY 
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED 
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST 
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR 
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT 
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER 
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED 
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED 
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER 
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP 
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART. 
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING 
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT 
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER 
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL. 

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER 
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN 
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN 
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI

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