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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 292319
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. 

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.  

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WK N-NELY FLOW SUSTAINING MVFR CIGS BENEATH LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL MIXING AND WK DRY AIR ADVECTION
WAS ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CIGS
TO THE NE. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVING TREND TO THE LOW CIGS
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ONSET OF VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW. LOW
PRESSURE OVER TX EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO CENTRAL IL BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. A LARGE BAND OF OVER-RUNNING RAIN SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY 
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT

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