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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 252349
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
649 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

PARTIAL CLEARING IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS ILLINOIS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. 

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING AS
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD HELP TRAP LOW CLOUDS BENEATH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DVLPG
WED PRBLY ADVECTING SAME CLOUD DECK BACK TO THE WEST. CURRENT
TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE FCST MINS AND LEFT IN TACT AS ANY BREAKS
COULD ALLOW FOR THAT MUCH OF A FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER...FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW AND MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER. SHARE CONCERNS OF PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR INVERSION TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND ALLOWING FOR
SLOW DEMISE OR EVEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS IF SKIES DO
MANAGE TO CLEAR SOME. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DOWNWARD TREND INTO
THIS EVENING. AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
YIELD A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF
THE PLAINS INTO NE MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE AREA WARRANTING REMOVAL
OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A HAIR TONIGHT WITH 
CLEARING IN THE EVENING. WEAK SE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER 
AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS MAKING A RUN FOR FREEZING 
ACROSS THE AREA. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE 
PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES HELPING CREATE A ROLLER COASTER 
PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO 
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC TYPE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT 
SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING. 

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WAS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME 
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS 
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC 
TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE 
NORTH WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH COLD AIR 
ADVECTION. DELTA T VALUES CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE 
DAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND NW 
INDIANA NEAR THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY. SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH 
IN AFTERNOON AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN A BRIEF 
WINDOW OF DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 
EVENING HOURS. DURING THIS PERIOD...DELTA T VALUES RISE INTO THE 20S 
BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT GREAT IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. SATURATED LAYER 
DOES EXTEND TO AROUND 5 OR 6KFT WITH PARTIALLY SATURATED DGZ AND 
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW GOOD 
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT AND SOME ACCUMS. EXPECTED AMOUNTS CURRENTLY 
LOOK TO BE IN THE GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. DURATION SHOULD BE 
SHORT AND DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z AS FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO SOUTHWEST 
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.

THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BRING AT LEAST A 
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DEEPER 
SATURATION LOOKS MOST LIKELY. MODELS VARY ON AMOUNT OF SATURATION 
BUT HAVE KEPT A LOW POP GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. 
ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THIS 
REALLY JUST GETS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT 
WILL FEEL WARM GIVEN RECENT PATTERN. BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNCERTAINTY 
CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WEAK SHORT 
WAVES IN ZONAL FLOW DICTATING BOUNDARY LOCATION AND HOW FAR WE GET 
INTO THE COLD SECTOR AND FOR HOW LONG. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
SYSTEMS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT SEVERAL WEAKER 
SHORT WAVES LIKELY KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH A FEW LOW 
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PCPN TO SMALL TO MENTION.    
 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGH  PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVE WILL ALLOW LIGHT 
WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS
DECK CURRENTLY ALONG WK RIDGE AXIS OVER IL BUT HAVE DOUBTS IT
WILL MAKE MUCH EASTWARD HEADWAY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE WEAKENS. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS A WK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ADVECT LOW CLOUDS
BACK TO THE WEST SO FCST MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT

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