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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 201746
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TODAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS EARLY THIS 
MORNING HAVE HELPED AVERT FOG DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL TEMPORARILY 
SPREAD INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOISTURE SURGES BACK NORTHEAST 
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE 
GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL SUPPORT LOW LEVEL THETA E FLUX INCREASING WITH 
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR STORMS TONIGHT. FAVORED THIS GENERAL MODEL BLEND 
AND TRENDED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES HIGHER LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN A MORE 
ELEVATED STORM NATURE TONIGHT AND LIMITED CAPES...STORMS ARE NOT 
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH THE NAM/MET 
AND GFS/MAV SUPPORT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 
IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO OUR CWA THU IN RESPONSE TO 
SHRTWV LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST. THIS 
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT TSTMS IN THE AREA GIVEN COMBINATION OF 
DECENT LOW LEVEL FORCING AND VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 
NEWD PROGRESS OF WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA MAY BE HINDERED BY 
OUTFLOWS FROM TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT THU-FRI WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT 
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  BY SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT SHOULD WASH 
OUT AS UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MS VALLEY/WRN GRTLKS IN 
RESPONSE TO TROF DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED 
TSTMS AT MOST. AS WRN TROF LIFTS INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY 
NEXT WEEK A WKNG CDFNT EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW 
BRINGING A CHC OF TSTMS BY TUE ALONG WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN 
TEMPS... THOUGH WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY AT LEAST THROUGH 
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDS TO BEGIN THE PD IN SHALLOW POST FNTL AIRMASS BEHIND 
DEPARTING SW DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT THROUGH SERN ONTARIO. HWVR 
UPSTREAM SW OVR SRN BC WILL CARRY EWD OVERNIGHT AND AIDE NWD RTN OF 
WMFNTL BNDRY BACK ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY. XPC STORMS WILL FIRE INVOF 
OF TERMINALS TWD 12Z W/TSRA PROBABLE THU AM W/PD OF MVFR CONDS PSBL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...T

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