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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 011055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IOWA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE 
SOUTHEAST TO KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN 
DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY... 
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY 
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT 
AS THE HIGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S... RESULTING IN THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE 
SEASON FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

STILL DEEPENING UPR LOW CONTG TO DIG SE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS 
THIS MORNING. TRAILING TROF AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS ERN PORTION OF OUR 
CWA SUSTAINING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS TROF WILL PUSH EAST OF 
THE CWA BY 12Z ENDING ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NW OH. ANY 
LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR SE WILL END THIS MORNING AND CLOUD 
COVER WILL DECREASE AS DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. THERMAL TROF 
OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST BUT ENSURE ANOTHER DAY OF MUCH 
BLO NORMAL TEMPS DESPITE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE... WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 
THE U30S/L40S.  THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT 
PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA AS
NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SW WITH RIDGE PASSAGE. ALSO MODELS
SUGGEST CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS MANITOBA/ND/MN
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS HIGH CLOUD DECK
PRBLY NOT WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
RADIATIONAL COOLING... BUT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO
DEWPOINTS... STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FCST LOWS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD WEATHER WILL LIFT 
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL 
SPREAD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS 
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS WARMER THAN THE GFS EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TOPPING 11C MONDAY. THEREFORE...RAISED 
HIGHS JUST A LITTLE MORE MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIKELY 
RISING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS. THE GFS AND THE 
ECMWF HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH THE 
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA 
TUESDAY. KEPT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. 
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR LATER IN 
THE WEEK...THE LATEST GFS ANALOGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 
NORMAL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 850 MB 
TEMPS AROUND -6C THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUPPORT THESE COOL TEMPERATURES 
INDICATED BY THE GFS ANALOGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER SRN MI/NRN INDIANA ON 
PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING EAST COAST LOW. 
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA 
FROM THE WEST SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN/TNGT. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND
GRADIENT DECREASES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT

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