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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 010028
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
828 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S...EXCEPT A BIT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES 
PUSHING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHRA IN NE
CWA...PRECIP HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WELCOMED PERIOD OF DRY WX. SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS WELL AND DRAG TRAILING COLD
FRONT THE AREA THIS EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. ADDL RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY ADDED TO THE
ALREADY AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHILE MID LEVEL DRYING
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AREAS OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT
ANTICIPATE A REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL POPULATE GRIDS WITH AREAS
OF FOG FOR NOW AND LET EVENING SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR DENSE FOG
ADV. CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 10F
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE M50S AND HIGHS L-M70S WITH
NOTICEABLE LAKE SHADOW IN WEAK W/NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONT IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GTLKS 
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL 
SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL FRI WHEN 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS KY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP 
TO THE THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES FRI/FRI NITE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING 
EWD FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL BE THE 
FOCUS FOR SCTD PRECIP DURING THE WEEKEND...MAINLY ON SUN. AS THIS 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK 
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. 
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH FRI THEN BEGIN WARM 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FIRST INITIAL DIFFICULTY IS WITH RESPECT TO IFR STRATUS DECK
COMING OFF SRN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND APPROACHING KSBN AIRFIELD
FM NW. WILL COVER WITH SHORT 1 HOUR TEMPO GIVEN TREND OF
MAINTAINING FAR INLAND ACRS SWRN LWR MI. OTHERWISE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC AS CONTD DRY AIR ADVECTION TO HELP OFFSET
RATHER HIGH XOVER TEMPS/LACKLUSTER LATE AFTN LOW LEVEL MIXOUT IN
WAKE OF SFC FNTL PASSAGE. SUFFICIENT EXPUNGMENT OF LOW LEVEL
HYGROSCOPIC METEORS ALONG WITH HIGHLY OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MVFR VSBYS AT KSBN...BUT GIVEN LATER/AFTN FROPA AT KFWA AND
SLIGHTLY LAGGED SFC DPS...WILL PROVIDE 3 HR PD OF TEMPO
FUELING/ALTERNATE CRITERIA AROUND SUNUP.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY 
SHORT TERM...JAL 
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...MURPHY

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