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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 301043
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
643 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE 
AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN 
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA 
TONIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.   

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLOSING OFF UPR LOW WAS MOVG SE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS THIS MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT MOVG ACROSS SE PORTION OF CWA.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NE
PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD TAPER OFF/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC
THIS AFTN AS RIDGE BUILDS SE INTO WI/MI... EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LATER TODAY. LOW LEVELS WERE WELL MIXED BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT
MUCH OF A RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT WILL COUNT ON SOME
INSOLATION THIS AFTN TO BOOST TEMPS A BIT... INTO THE L-M60S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

UPR LOW WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH DEEP LAYER 
RIDGING FOLLOWING IT THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY. SOME LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN OUR
AREA... ESPECIALLY NE PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS FCST MAINLY IN THE M40S. IF SKIES DO
CLEAR... FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM... THOUGH FELT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL TO
MENTION IN FCSTS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY EVENING ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF DRY/FAIR WEATHER TO 
START THE PERIOD. SHOULD SEE ANY LOW BKN/OVC STRATOCU MIX OUT BY 
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY GIVEN STRENGTHENING 
SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL MIXING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO MAKE A 
RUN AT THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING 
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF 
A WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE WITH TIME 
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS INVOF A POTENTIAL WEAK PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE IN 
THETA-E ADV REGIME...ALTHOUGH HELD SHY OF LIKELY POPS AS BETTER 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/FORCING INITIALLY FOCUSES WEST OF THE IWX CWA. 

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS IN ABRUPT FLIP TO COOLER/UNSETTLED 
WX UNDER AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE 
WEEKEND. EXPECTED PHASING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE TRACK NE THROUGH THE NRN 
LAKES/ONTARIO...WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE 
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER 
CHANCES LOOKING GOOD WITH FROPA GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN AND DEEP 
ASCENT PLUME WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. 
CONSIDERED A POP BUMP INTO CATEGORICAL BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN 
NORMAL TIMING DIFFERENCES AND SLIGHT CONCERN FOR MID MS VALLEY 
CONVECTION TO HINDER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION 
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVE 
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS NEAR VORT MAX/WRAP AROUND 
MOISTURE...AND ADDED SUPPORT FROM LAKE MI AS LAKE-7H DIFFERENTIALS 
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SCT POST-FRONTAL SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA OVER NE INDIANA/NW OH SHOULD BE
EXITING THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... WHILE EXTENSIVE
STRATUS/STRATO CU DECK ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS WILL LINGER.
SUBSIDENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR RISING CIGS THIS
MORNING AND PRBLY SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC... BUT EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY. WITH RIDGE OVER
THE UPR MIDWEST MOVG EAST INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT... DIMINISHING LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST. IF THERE ARE
SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUDS... BR PSBL TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT

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