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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KIWX 281939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR 
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS 
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS. 
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING 
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT 
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE 
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED 
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM 
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS 
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT 
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS 
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA 
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD 
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD. 

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS 
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS 
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER 
LONG TERM...T 
AVIATION...FISHER

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