000
FXUS63 KLMK 172304
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS THIN LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO OUR
CWA BY 3 PM...AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY 5 THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY...WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS
TOTALING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVE FINALLY MIXED DOWN AND WINDS HAVE PICKED
UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
DIE DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HEATING DIMINISHES AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF BROKEN CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THIS PAST WEEK...A DEEP CLOSED LOW
CONTINUES SOUTH OF HUDSON`S BAY. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEMS IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DROP
SOUTHEAST AND SWING A TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY.
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PROMOTED SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SCOOT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN. OUR BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR BOWLING GREEN.
SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE MIDWEST WILL BRING DISTINCTLY COLDER AIR AND INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 6 TO 12 DEGREES COOL THAN TODAY`S.
.IN THE EXTENDED(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING PRECIP CHANCES AND DELAYING THE
EVENTUAL BIG WARM-UP.
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY CATEGORIZED BY RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...PUTTING US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW. FIRST SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD US MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA...SO HAVE HIGH CHC POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ONLY HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED GENERALLY OVER
THE SOUTH OR OVER THE BLUEGRASS...WITH JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED
ELSEWHERE.
WITH NO OTHER SHORTWAVES TO REALLY GENERATE ANY PRECIP...HAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DRY...THOUGH STILL UNDER A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW. WENT WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP INTO THE 70S TUES-WED.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...
BY THURSDAY...THE RIDGING FINALLY REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING THERE TOO. ENSEMBLES AND OPS GFS TRY TO GENERATE
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP FROM THIS LOW OVER OUR AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THOSE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE
EURO DOES NOT KEEP THIS PRECIP OVER THE AREA...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE WARM UP LOOKS TO BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SO WENT NEAR ENSEMBLE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS LATE NEXT WEEK...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. THINK THE MID 80 HIGHS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SOME WEAK SHOWERS MAY APPROACH SDF AND LEX
TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANYTHING
LESS THAN SOME LOWER VFR CIGS AND SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
IF ANY AT ALL.
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
06Z-14Z SUNDAY TIME FRAME. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....MACZKO
