000
FXUS61 KILN 131812
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO WORK IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER
THE TN VLY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THIS LOW...ALONG WITH A SFC-925MB CONVERGENCE AXIS NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER...WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. SOUTH THEREOF...PCPN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TONIGHT...SHRA WILL BECOME MORE SCT IN
NATURE...BUT SFC TROF CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK W PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALSO THERE ARE WEAK EMBEDDED S/W
SWINGING AROUND BACKSIDE OF H5 LOW. SCT SHRA IN THE NLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BUT PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
A LOT OF H8 MOISTURE AROUND ON MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE ALLOWED
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO WORK IN FROM THE N.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS FOR SUN AND MON...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PCPN WENT ABOVE MAV LOWS BY ABOUT A CATEGORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTWARD-REACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS IN
RELATIVE AGREEMENT THAT OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN TRANQUIL FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. GENERALLY STAYED
NEAR MEX/MEN BLEND FOR TEMPS...KEEPING THEM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE VA/NORTH CAROLINA
COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH OFF THE
ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS OCCURRING NOW AS AN OCCLUDDED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROF AXIS IS DRAPED NW TO SE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH EMBEBBED
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THEREAFTER...TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT ESE THROUGH 18Z. LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE MUCH WEAKER BY
THIS TIME...SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT POSITIONING AND TIMING BEYOND 00Z AS MODELS
ARE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE HANDLED THE THREAT FOR RAIN
BEYOND 00Z WITH A VCSH. LATER TAFS WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE CHANCES
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AS FOR CIGS/VSBYS...MVFR TO LCL IFR CIGS
WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. BETWEEN 00Z
AND 15Z...CIGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY WITH AGAIN MVFR VSBYS DUE TO AS PASSING RAIN SHOWER AND
GROUND MIST/FOG. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK UP INTO THE 1500 FOOT RANGE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/SITES
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
