000
FXUS65 KVEF 061657
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS
AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOL
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.UPDATE...THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES BRING THE WEEKEND
LOW A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...BUT KEEPS IT CENTERED OVER UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE ON THAT THIS
AFTERNOON. NO UPDATE NEEDED FOR NOW.
.PREV DISCUSSION.../302 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008/
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE THIS
MORNING...AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO DID NOT BITE TOO HARD.
.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER TOGETHER IN THEIR WEEKEND
SOLUTIONS. ECMWF STILL BRINGS IN A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BEGINNING FRIDAY AND THEN SMARTLY MOVES IT NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE
GFS AND GEM ARE STILL BRINGING A TROUGH DOWN INTO THE CONUS FURTHER
EAST BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS BEFORE AND MAKING THE TROUGH DEEPER.
SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TAKING THE FURTHER TO THE WEST
CLOSED LOW APPROACH OF THE ECMWF. ALL ALONG WAS CONFIDENT SOME KIND
OF TROUGH/LOW WOULD COME THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE
NOW HIGHER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES MORE AS A RESULT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INCREASED POPS AS WELL IN THE NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA. CURRENT FORECAST WAS A BLENDING OF THE GFS/GEM
AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS. IF MODELS TREND MORE TOWARDS A DEEPER
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW OVER OUR CWA WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EVEN
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR MOUNTAIN
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
