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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 271525
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
825 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY AND WARM DAY 
TODAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS BY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. 
OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH 
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARDS RECORD TERRITORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
REGION. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM LAS VEGAS HAS A FORECAST MAX 
TEMP OF 89F WHICH WOULD EXCEED THE RECORD OF 88F FOR THE 
DATE...HOWEVER AN 8 DEGREE JUMP FROM YESTERDAY WITH VERY LITTLE WIND 
TO AID IN MIXING MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. THEREFORE I WILL LEAVE 
THE FORECAST MAX OF 87 IN VEGAS AS IS.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO 
WATCH THOUGH. 

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED IN DEATH 
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER 
DESERTS AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER LOCATIONS. 

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SITS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS 
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH 
MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL 
SATURDAY AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE 
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT 
BASIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER MODEL AND FORMS A CLOSED 
LOW OVER NEVADA WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER. OVERALL THERE IS 
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT THE 
LOWER LEVELS. THE SIERRA HAS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOME 
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THAT CHANCE IS SMALL AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING SOME WEAK 
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH 
500MB MOISTURE THERE COULD BE A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE ELSE 
AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL 
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT 
WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECEASE OVERNIGHT. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM START TO NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A 
COOLING TREND AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN 
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT 
AMONG THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE WEAK TROUGH OVER ARIZONA 
AND NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY MORNING WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST 
WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. A FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW 
IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THIS WILL 
ALLOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY FOR SOME 
INCREASING WINDS AND SLIGHT COOLING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE DOWN THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH THURSDAY WHICH 
WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT BY LATE 
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 10-15 
DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS AND ARE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED CONS 
GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND 
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL 
REMAIN CLEAR.
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG 
WITH CLEAR SKIES. 
&&

.CLIMATE...LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY. RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ON 
SATURDAY.

LOCATION        SAT 3/28          SUN 3/29         MON 3/30
------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS       89/1986           86/1966          88/2004
MT CHARLESTON   67/1989           63/1989          65/2004
BISHOP          81/1986           81/1969          84/1966
BARSTOW         90/1986           88/1969          91/1969
DEATH VALLEY    102/1986          99/2002          101/2002
NEEDLES         97/1986           95/1917          97/2004 
KINGMAN         82/1921           86/1934          87/2002
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. 
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER 
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/ADAIR

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