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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 012204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 
WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CREEP BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY 
NEXT MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE 
COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL 
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TO 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH 
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING A 
LITTLE SHOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY BUT AT THIS TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY 
LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY 
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWEST 
TOWARD ARIZONA AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE BAJA COAST. HOW FAR 
NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO GET DEPENDS ON A TROUGH 
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND WHERE THE STRONGER AND DRIER 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. FOR NOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 
THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY IN 
MOHAVE COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FEW MORE AFTERNOON 
CLOUDS. THE MODELS REALLY START TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY 
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA 
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE WEST 
OF THE COLORADO RIVER. THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 
TROUGH AND IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN OVERCOME THE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS OVER MOHAVE 
COUNTY...BUT NOTHING WEST OF THE RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 
JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH 
AFTER ABOUT 02Z. A PERIOD OF EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN 16Z-20Z 
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTH 10-15 KTS MUCH OF TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 
10-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MUCH OF TUESDAY. 
LIGHTER DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

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