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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 230855
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
155 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN 
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND 
COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

A COUPLE MORE QUIET WEATHER DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, THE SKY WILL BE 
MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT OVERALL THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES 
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY AS MODELS BRING TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO 
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN 
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND SWING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST NAM ACTUALLY GENERATES LIGHT QPF OVER THE 
MOJAVE DESERT AND UP INTO LINCOLN COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING 
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SOLUTION IS THE OUTLIER AT THE 
MOMENT AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS 
BRUSHING NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY 
NIGHT RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. A HIRES MODEL SHOWS A 
POSSIBLE DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES 
SATURDAY BUT KEEPS IT ANCHORED TO THE MID AND UPPER SLOPES WITH NO 
HINT OF STRONGER WINDS MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER SLOPES OR INTO THE 
OWENS VALLEY. WILL MONITOR THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE IF IT WILL BRING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE AREA REMAINING 
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. THE WESTERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA. 
LOWER HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL COOL US 
DOWN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES FROM WHAT WE EXPERIENCE SATURDAY. SURFACE 
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...LATE SUNDAY 
ACROSS OUR NORTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES MONDAY AS THE FRONT 
WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES 
HOLD. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...PARTICULARLY 
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TUESDAY AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF 
WARMING...WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR 
WEDNESDAY. WILL USE A BALANCED BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND 
COMBINE WITH THE NAEFS MEAN. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT AND PROVIDE SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 8 KTS TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT BY 16Z. AN 
EASTERLY COMPONENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO 
SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...BESIDES SCT CIRRUS AOA 25K FT ACROSS THE NORTH...CLEAR 
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR 
BELOW 10KTS NEAR THE AIRFIELDS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT KBIH 
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. 
&&

$$

SALMEN/PADDOCK

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