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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 280935
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 AM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT 
BASIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS EXPECTED THIS 
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 

THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TODAY TO ONE THAT IS WARMER AND 
DRIER. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AROUND OVER THE AREA 
FOR MOST OF MAY WILL TRANSITION TO THE EAST TODAY OPENING THE DOOR 
FOR A RARE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC. 
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SMALL RIPPLE 
(WEAKNESS) NOTED IN THE MODEL 500 MB HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA THAT WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT 
BASIN FROM NORTHERN INYO TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE COVERAGE OF 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND BASED ON THE 
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL ARW AND NMM 4 KM MODELS NO CHANGES WERE MADE 
TO POPS. LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE 
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT 
A DRY DAY WITH CIRRUS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY 
COURTESY OF THE JET STREAM FEEDING IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS 
WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND THE WARMER MAV (GFS) NUMBERS WERE 
MAINLY USED WITH ADDITIONAL TWEAKS BASED ON WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.

CIRRUS SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKY ON AVERAGE. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD FURTHER INLAND TOMORROW. 
AGAIN, THE ARW AND NMM AS WELL AS THE WRF HINT THAT FEW SHOWERS MAY 
TRY TO GO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND 
IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN 
FOR THIS AS THIS WILL COME DOWN TO MAINLY MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT 
SUBLIMATING AND TERRAIN HEATING DRIVING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, 
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND AGAIN I WENT WITH THE 
WARMER MAV.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AS THE RIDGE AXIS 
BECOMES CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES 
WHICH WOULD GIVE LAS VEGAS THE FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH OF THE YEAR 
AT MCCARRAN THOUGH SOME EASTERN PARTS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL 
LIKELY SEE THAT TODAY OR ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL NOT COOL OFF AS MUCH 
AT NIGHT AS THE HEAT ISLAND KICKS IN AND LOWS FAIL TO DROP BELOW THE 
MID 70S. OUR HIGH LAST FRIDAY WAS ONLY 74 IN CASE YOU FORGOT.

AS A REMINDER, CHECK YOUR AIR CONDITIONER AND STAY HYDRATED IF YOU 
HAVE ANY WEEKEND PLANS. IN ADDITION, SNOW AND ICE MELT WILL CREATE 
HIGH ELEVATION HAZARDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA. WE HAVE ISSUED A 
GRAPHIC TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THOUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH HOT 
TEMPERATURES UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HELPING TO 
TAMPER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIP WELL 
NORTH...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE 
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF 
HANDLE THIS TROUGH DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER OF 
THE TWO AND DIGGING IT ALONG THE COAST IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS WHICH 
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER INLAND. BOTH MODELS KEEP DYNAMICS 
AND MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AT THIS 
POINT. 
&& 

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL 
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH 
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 
AOA 12K FEET IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET 
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20Z THURSDAY AND ENDING BY 05Z 
FRIDAY NORTH OF KIYK-KDRA-KCDC LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5K-8K FEET 
AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL FAVOR 
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN 
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING 
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI 
LONG TERM...STEELE

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