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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 191255 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
455 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Patchy fog possible this morning in the wake of 
Saturday's rain event. Some lingering showers will still be possible 
across mainly Lincoln, far eastern Clark and Mohave counties today 
and again in the Sierra and southern Great Basin on Monday and 
Tuesday. It looks to be breezy at times through mid-week with cooler 
temperatures during the second half of the week.
&&

.UPDATE...Area of showers that blossomed across eastern Clark County 
just as quickly has started to weaken. Have lowered POPs accordingly 
leaving a mention in mainly for northeast Clark and the Lake Mead 
National Recreation Area early this morning.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday Night.

Fully saturated air mass will lead to areas of fog or low clouds 
just about everywhere this morning. Have seen Fort Irwin briefly 
report visibility down to a 1/4 mile. Otherwise, generally see 
visibility drop to between 1 and 3 miles at times.  

An area of light rain which blossomed over the past few hours mainly 
across eastern Clark County showing signs of slowly moving east. The 
eastward drift will continue throughout the day across Mohave County 
as the trough over Arizona shifts into the southern Rockies late 
this afternoon. 

Very brief break in precip expected as models in good agreement 
showing broad shield of light precip reaching the southern Sierra 
Nevada spine this evening. Heaviest precip with this overrunning 
event will occur over northern Inyo County with lighter precip 
mainly in the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin Monday and 
Tuesday. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern 
Sierra Slope and White Mountains of Inyo County between 10 pm this 
evening and 10 am Tuesday. Should see between 6-12 inches between 7-
9 kft and above 9 kft 12-24 inches. 

Southwest breezes strongest in northwest Arizona and northwest San 
Bernardino County this afternoon. More widespread southerly winds 
are forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Even though skies look to be 
Partly to Mostly Cloudy during the period temperatures will warm to 
above normal on Monday and Tuesday.  

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Upper-level trough swinging by Wednesday will yield shower chances 
in the northern tier of counties in the CWA in addition to northwest 
Arizona. This will also lead to a belt of breezy west to southwest 
winds along I-15 with some breezy north winds on the back side in 
Nye county by Thursday morning. Attention then turns to the next 
low, which will be digging down the NW US coast by Saturday morning. 
The GFS remains the deeper, more moist solution, while the Euro 
stays drier. Maintained current middle-of-the-road forecast for now. 
Temperatures look to remain on the cool side of normal after 
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Tricky morning forecast. Northern 
portions of the Las Vegas Valley have been blanketed with very low 
clouds while southern portions of the valley have been spared with 
ceilings from 3-6 kft. Expect these clouds to scatter out this 
morning, creating an opportunity for the very low clouds to spread 
southward. This low level moisture should lift with time later this 
morning and might scatter out briefly this afternoon before another 
slug of moisture brings another round of low ceilings...at or below 
5 kft overnight tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds through the period 
should remain light, favoring a southerly direction by the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast 
California...Fog and low ceilings possible across the area this 
morning as clouds begin to clear over abundant low level moisture. 
Generally light winds less than 10 kts expected for most with the 
greatest potential for stronger winds around KDAG. Ceilings and 
visibilities are likely to improve by this afternoon, but another 
slug of moisture will bring the potential for lower ceilings 
overnight tonight.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating 
procedures. In particular, any significant rain or wind and 
any reports of flooding through the weekend.
&&

$$

Short Term...Pierce
Long Term/Aviation...Steele

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