Get Forecast For:
Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 242150
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND 
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY AND WARMER 
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

CLOUDS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY. INITIALLY WE 
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH 
MOST AREAS SEEING ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST 
LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH...BUT A FEW SITES 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MAY SEE GUSTS OVER 55 MPH. 
CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. OVERALL THE 
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND DEPTH OF THIS 
SYSTEM AND GENERALLY ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. 
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE IF ANY IS EXPECTED TO SPILL OVER ONTO THE 
EASTERN SLOPE UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GET WOUND 
UP AND DEEPEN JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE MOVING 
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING. STRONG AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL HELP 
GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY 
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE OVER A 
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS 
CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...BUT UP TO 2 TENTHS OF AN 
INCH OF RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DID UP THE POP AND QPF 
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START 
OUT AROUND 8000 FEET AND THEN FALL TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY SATURDAY 
MORNING. LOCATIONS BETWEEN 6000-7000 FEET COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES 
OF SNOW WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME FEEL 
THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGH 
ENOUGH NOT TO AFFECT TRAVEL AND HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WINTER 
WEATHER PRODUCTS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY SATURDAY WHICH 
IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON 
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. BY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN 
ARIZONA...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END 
BY SATURDAY EVENING. 

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE 
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL 
ENERGY RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE 
SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. BY MONDAY, SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE 
DOMINANT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN. ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE EAST 
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD 
HELP TO ENHANCE NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA 
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA 
COULD VERY WELL BE MET ON TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS SHOULD BE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY THEN WARM TO NEAR 
NORMAL ON MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE FURTHER. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THE 
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH TEMPS AS THE GFS AND GEM BUILD 
THE RIDGE INLAND FURTHER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OF IT 
OFFSHORE. AT THE PRESENT THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 
COOLER ECMWF AND THE WARMER GFS/GEM. THUS ANY WARMING TREND THROUGH 
THE WEEK WILL BE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WINDS 
GUSTING OVER 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW 15 
PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THE FIRE 
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 
8 PM FRIDAY.  
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH WINDS MAINLY 4-8 KTS EARLY THIS 
MORNING WILL LIKELY BECOME EAST/SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WITH 
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS 
AFTER ABOUT 23Z AND REMAIN THERE ALL NIGHT. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AOA 
20K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERING CLOUDS AND A RISK OF SHOWERS 
MAINLY IN THE BEATTY CORRIDOR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY 
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE MORNING AND THE AROUND 
10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A STORM SYSTEM WILL 
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH 
LOWERING CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS WEST AND 
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

ASG/STACHELSKI

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER