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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 211658
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
858 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG JET STREAM PASSING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP A 
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ALLOW 
FOR A STRAY SHOWER IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. A SYSTEM WILL PUSH 
ACROSS UTAH ON MONDAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 
RECORD LEVELS ON MONDAY. MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
CHRISTMAS EVE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER CONDITIONS ALONG 
WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 
&&

.UPDATE...
HIGH AND A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS 
MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS AND THINNING HERE AND THERE TO ALLOW 
FOR FILTERED SUN. TIME-HEIGHTS INDICATE DRYING AT MID THEN UPPER 
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
FARTHER EAST INTO OUR AREA. ON AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A 
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD 
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S NUMBERS FOR MANY 
LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THESE CONDITIONS WELL...NO 
MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
304 AM PST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE CIRRUS INVASION CONTINUES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AS A POWERHOUSE 140 KT+ JET AT 250 MB PLOWS INTO THE PAC 
NW. THIS IS SHUNTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. 
MEANWHILE THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS FROM THE RECENT STORMS AND 
NOTHING HAS REALLY FLUSHED THIS OUT OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WAS A 
RATHER DECENT PWAT OF 0.63 INCH ON YESTERDAY EVENING'S KVEF SOUNDING 
BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SITS IN 
THE FORECAST. WHY? WELL THERE REALLY IS NO FEATURE TO KICK OFF 
ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE JET STREAM. SO AS A RESULT THE ONLY SHOT FOR 
SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE A FEW 
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE 
EXPECT A DRY AND MILDER DAY AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD 
DECK SHOULD THIN SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WARMER AIR ALOFT COMES 
IN COURTESY OF A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST. AN INVERSION WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS SOME ESPECIALLY 
IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.

THE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, LESS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE 
SURFACE MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS NW SAN BERNARDINO AND FAR SW 
INYO COUNTIES TONIGHT AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD THERE REMAINS 
RATHER CLOSE. 

THE STRONG JET OVER THE PAC NW WILL SHIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
WEST ON MONDAY WITH A 150 KT+ JET STREAK PROGGED OVER NORTHERN UTAH 
AT 250 MB PER THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS WILL SEND A PUSH OF 
NORTHERLY WINDS INTO OUR AREA WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK THE INVERSION 
BY THE AFTERNOON AND GIVE TEMPS A SHOT AT RECORD HIGHS IN PARTS OF 
THE AREA INCLUDING LAS VEGAS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WINDS 
AT THE SURFACE WILL PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT 
AND TIGHTENING NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HOWEVER, NO 
HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED AT THIS TIME, BUT FAVORED NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS 
SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER COULD SEE GUSTS OVER 30 MPH BY THE 
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS SOME COOLER AIR WILL GET 
FILTERED DOWN FOR TUESDAY, HOWEVER, THE RIDGE OFFSHORE HOLDS AND 
TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF 
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME CIRRUS MAY 
DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST BEING THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD 
DISAGREED ON WHETHER/HOW MUCH TO AMPLIFY THIS WAVE. 00Z/21 RUNS HAVE 
COME CLOSER TO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF 
THE ECMWF AND A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS. ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS ARE ALSO CLUSTERED MORE TIGHTLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO 
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN 
CHRISTMAS MORNING AND REACH THE ROCKIES CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. PRECIP 
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN 
FRINGE OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL COME DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE 
NEW GFS MOS GIVES 54F FOR KLAS FRIDAY AND THE ECMWF MOS GIVES 
51F...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 60F AND 47F RESPECTIVELY IN 
YESTERDAYS RUNS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A NORTH WIND EVENT FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH 
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST COAST.
&&
  
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS 
ARE EXPECTED AROUND 17Z SUNDAY THROUGH 03Z MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST 
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS RETURN. MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET WITH 
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS 10K FEET THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS TRENDING 
TOWARD THE FEW-SCT RANGE AT AOA 10K FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND TREND TOWARD 
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY 
TODAY. CIGS AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY 
OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS 
LOW AS 10K-12K FEET TRENDING TOWARD FEW-SCT TONIGHT. 
&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS ON 
MONDAY AT SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY LAS VEGAS. RECORD HIGHS ARE 
LISTED BELOW.

LAS VEGAS          68/1950
DESERT ROCK        69/1985
MT CHARLESTON      56/2005
BISHOP             71/2000
BARSTOW-DAGGETT    78/1955
DEATH VALLEY       82/1914
NEEDLES            74/1955
KINGMAN            72/1906
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATE...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...MORGAN

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