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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 220559
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
959 PM PST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Break between systems will be short lived as
another potent system brings widespread rain, mountain snow, and
gusty winds to the region tonight through Monday. Drier and cool
conditions are then in store for Tuesday and beyond.
&&

.UPDATE...The nose of the atmospheric river could be seen pushing
into central California this evening and radar was showing light to
moderate precipitation beginning to move into the southern Sierra.
This will intensify overnight into Sunday morning as a trough digs
off the coast. The main update this evening was to issue a Winter
Storm Warning for the Owens Valley from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday.
The overall setup with this digging trough and atmospheric river has
a fairly close analog in the Jan 1-2, 2006 event when Bishop
received about 16 inches of snow. NAM Bufr soundings support
sustained snow through the day along with MET and MAV guidance,
although MOS guidance temperatures are too high for Bishop and
should not climb much above 35 degrees...similar to Friday. Trends
for the rest of the region are on track although model QPF may be on
the low side given the deep moisture plume and strong winds moving
across southern California and southern Nevada Sunday and Sunday
night. -Adair
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
309 PM PST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night.

Hope everyone got an opportunity to enjoy the sunshine or fresh snow
at higher elevations today as cloudiness associated with our next
storm system is starting to increase into central California. 

Did push back the start of the Winter Storm Warning until after 10
pm this evening as models agree the heaviest snow will hold off
until after midnight tonight for the eastern Sierra Slopes.
Otherwise, made little change to existing headlines as widespread
rain, heavy mountain snow and gusty winds are set to impact the
region Sunday through Monday. 

Snow levels slated to start out a little higher in the 6000-7000
feet range Sunday before colder air rushes in dropping snow levels
down to 3500-4000 feet Monday. By the time snow levels lower to
those levels much of the moisture has moved east into Arizona.
Nature of the storms on Monday will be more convective so can not
rule out our lower desert locations seeing some type of frozen
precip; be it snow, snow pellets or graupel.

Winds forecast to increase Sunday afternoon across the Mojave Desert
with guidance, Hi-Res models showing the peak Sunday night through
Monday. A Wind Advisory is out for those winds. 

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. 

A much deserved break in the parade of Pacific storm systems is
expected for the extended range as broad troughing shifts into the
Central US and ridging takes hold of the West Coast. We will remain
on the cyclonic and cool side of the trough through Friday so
temperatures will remain below normal but dry conditions are
expected.  Occasional bouts of gusty north winds down the Colorado
River Valley will be possible as well, especially Friday and
Saturday. As the ridge continues to build into next weekend,
temperatures warming back to near or even above normal levels can be
expected. 
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Clear skies early this evening then
increasing clouds overnight. West to occasional northwest winds will
persist into this evening then are expected to settle in a light
southwest to west direction overnight. High clouds will fill in this
evening then lower overnight with cigs by morning expected to be
around 8-10k feet. Cigs will continue to lower through 15z as
precipitation moves into the region. Cigs will continue to lower
after 15z with precipitation moving into the area. Widespread rain
and cigs down to 4-5k feet expected through much of the day after
16z. Visibility could also be impacted through the day and mountain
peaks will be obscured. Winds will be south 10-20 kts.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Winds will gradually decrease over western San
Bernardino County this evening. Clouds will gradually increase and
lower overnight as the next storm system moves into the area.
Lower cigs and widespread precipitation will impact the Sierra and
Owens Valley around sunrise and then spread east during the day with
cigs down to 3-5k feet with impacts to visibility possible. Most
mountain peaks will see obscurations. Winds will increase from the
south with most areas seeing speeds in the 10-25 kts range. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
rain or snow amounts through Monday as another storm moves through
the region.
&&

$$

Short Term...Pierce
Long Term...Outler
Aviation...Gorelow

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