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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 061712
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
912 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY MOVE 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA 
MOUNTAINS.
&&

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST 
WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO 
UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
240 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

REX BLOCK PATTERN DOMINATES THE WEST COAST TODAY AS A WEAK CLOSED 
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG 
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS 
MEANS FOR US IS A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES 
LIKELY CREEPING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS 
ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY 
WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAJA FILLING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD AND A BROAD 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. 

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEST COAST RIDGE 
HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND. THE MEDIUM RANGE 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL TREND BUT NOT IN THE 
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS 
INDICATES THE WEAKEST TROUGH WITH BARELY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING 
TO JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE 
SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY THEN A RIDGE QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE 
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LINGERS THE TROUGH 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY 
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLING TREND AND 
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DETAILS WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY BUT THE FORECAST IS BIASED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MORE 
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE 
PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD 
DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 
TO REMAIN AOB 8KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA... LIGHT WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED 
OVER MOST TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT 
TERMINALS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY FROM KIFP TO KEED... 
WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS 
AT TIMES WILL AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS FROM ROUGHLY 17Z TODAY TO 3Z 
SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER ALL 
LOCATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED 
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER/PULLIN
LONG TERM...ADAIR

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