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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 271658
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
958 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER THE 
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. 
&&

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS SHOW 
DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE RICHER 
MOISTURE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE WE ARE 
CURRENTLY FORECASTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. THE MORNING LAS VEGAS SOUNDING INDICATED A COUPLE OF CAPS 
ALOFT BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, IT WILL ALLOW GOOD SURFACE 
HEATING AND THIS INHIBITION SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY 
BY 18Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-9KTS. THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST 
AFTER SUNSET. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10-12K FEET WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER 
COVERAGE AFFECTING THE MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS APPROACH 
CORRIDORS. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER CLARK 
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH MOST AREAS SEEING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 
AROUND 10KTS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH CIGS POSSIBLY DOWN TO 
8K FEET. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT 10-12K FEET EXPECTED. 
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...230 AM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

ITS BEEN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY AS 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY PERSISTENT...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS 
LIKE THINGS ARE STARTING TO QUIET DOWN AS OF 230 AM. THESE STORMS 
HAVE PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WORKED THROUGH 
CLARK COUNTY AND HAVE SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS THAT WORKED AS FAR SOUTH AS 
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY...BUT QUICKLY DIED WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL 
SUPPORT. PW VALUES ARE DOWN OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM 24 HOURS 
AGO...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER MAINLY MOHAVE AND 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES. 
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY STORMS TO 
DEVELOP. A TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP INCREASE THE 
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. STILL THINK THAT ENOUGH 
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...BUT 
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE 
SATURDAY AND IS LIKELY TO PUSH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE EAST OF THE 
AREA LEAVING THE CWA DRY. WITH THE DRIER AIR TEMPERATURES WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY 
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A 
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT 
LOWER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER JUST EAST OF MOHAVE 
COUNTY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS KEEPING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE A 
BIT FARTHER WEST...LAPPING AT EASTERN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY BUT 
THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT EAST SO I DID NOT ADD ANY THUNDERSTORM 
CHANCES BUT THAT TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT 
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING 
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...SALMEN
PREV SHORT/LONG DISC...GORELOW/HARRISON

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