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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 181003
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
303 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SNYOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY SET OFF A 
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE 
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER 
TEMPERTAURES TO THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOWS TODAY AS THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND A 
SECOND WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
OREGON. ACROSS OUR AREA A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED TO BE 
IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. BOTH THE WRF AND GFS 
OPERATIONAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND FAIRLY STABLE 
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE GFS THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND AT BEST IT 
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AND ALL WE SHOULD GET ARE SOME 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CUMULUS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES 
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH PLACED THEM IN-LINE 
WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF OF OREGON IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH 
TOMORROW AND BE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORCAL AND THEN DROP 
FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY TO WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE COLD POOL 
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW AND WHATEVER MOISTURE IT HAS TO TAP 
PLUS MOISTURE FROM ANY SNOWPACK THAT MELTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH 
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WHITE 
MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA LOOKS BETTER ON THE WEST SLOPES 
AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS TOWARD THE CREST. THE PROSPECTS 
ALSO LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER ON MONDAY AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND MAY 
BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS IT 
GETS CLOSER. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE 
NOT AS GREAT, HOWEVER, AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS SHOULD BLOSSOM IN THE 
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, SHEEP RANGE, LINCOLN COUNTY, 
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE PLATEAU AREA OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. 
IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY GET A FEW SPRINKLES IN ONE OF THESE AREAS BUT 
FOR NOW WE HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS ESPECIALLY THE 
WRF LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE QPF IT GENERATES. WHILE THERE WILL BE 
INSTABILITY, THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ABOVE 700 MB SO VERY LITTLE 
PRECIP WILL SURVIVE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ONE THING WORTH WATCHING 
WILL BE THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AS THE LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IT WILL REMAIN DRY 
WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
ONCE AGAIN A BLEND OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE CONS MODELS WERE 
USED FOR FORECAST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE 
FORESSEABLE FUTURE. TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE 
EAST...ALLOWING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE 
REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF 
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES 
TO BE GOOD TONIGHT IN BRINGING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THROUGH FAR 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A 
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. AT THIS 
TIME...SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SECOND 
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS BEING WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE AND 
THE ECMWF COMING IN SLOWER/STRONGER. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT 
THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE CLEAR OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING OUR 
ATTENTION TO TURN TOWARD A POTENTIAL THRID SHORTWAVE THAT COULD 
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF 
UNSETTLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

AS FOR GRID CHANGES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING POPS AREAWIDE 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THIS 
SYSTEM HAVING SUFFIECIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT TO GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES 
WILL TAKE A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM SEASONAL NORMALS FROM THURSDAY 
ONWARD...WITH THE COOLEST DAYS LOOKING LIKE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT 
THE TIME WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE 
APRIL. 
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 
THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO 
EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY (060-120) UP-VALLEY WIND THIS 
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW 8KTS AT THE TERMINAL THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL THIS 
EVENING...WITH SPEEDS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 8KTS. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...EXPECT DIURNAL WIND TRENDS AT ALL TAF SITES. KDAG COULD 
SEE SOME ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING UP TO 15KTS IN 
RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRUSHING ACROSS THE 
MOJAVE DESERT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF KBIH WHERE SCT-BKN 250 CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ACCORDING TO 
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. 
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI 
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

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