FXUS65 KVEF 191255 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
455 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Patchy fog possible this morning in the wake of
Saturday's rain event. Some lingering showers will still be possible
across mainly Lincoln, far eastern Clark and Mohave counties today
and again in the Sierra and southern Great Basin on Monday and
Tuesday. It looks to be breezy at times through mid-week with cooler
temperatures during the second half of the week.
.UPDATE...Area of showers that blossomed across eastern Clark County
just as quickly has started to weaken. Have lowered POPs accordingly
leaving a mention in mainly for northeast Clark and the Lake Mead
National Recreation Area early this morning.
.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday Night.
Fully saturated air mass will lead to areas of fog or low clouds
just about everywhere this morning. Have seen Fort Irwin briefly
report visibility down to a 1/4 mile. Otherwise, generally see
visibility drop to between 1 and 3 miles at times.
An area of light rain which blossomed over the past few hours mainly
across eastern Clark County showing signs of slowly moving east. The
eastward drift will continue throughout the day across Mohave County
as the trough over Arizona shifts into the southern Rockies late
Very brief break in precip expected as models in good agreement
showing broad shield of light precip reaching the southern Sierra
Nevada spine this evening. Heaviest precip with this overrunning
event will occur over northern Inyo County with lighter precip
mainly in the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin Monday and
Tuesday. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern
Sierra Slope and White Mountains of Inyo County between 10 pm this
evening and 10 am Tuesday. Should see between 6-12 inches between 7-
9 kft and above 9 kft 12-24 inches.
Southwest breezes strongest in northwest Arizona and northwest San
Bernardino County this afternoon. More widespread southerly winds
are forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Even though skies look to be
Partly to Mostly Cloudy during the period temperatures will warm to
above normal on Monday and Tuesday.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.
Upper-level trough swinging by Wednesday will yield shower chances
in the northern tier of counties in the CWA in addition to northwest
Arizona. This will also lead to a belt of breezy west to southwest
winds along I-15 with some breezy north winds on the back side in
Nye county by Thursday morning. Attention then turns to the next
low, which will be digging down the NW US coast by Saturday morning.
The GFS remains the deeper, more moist solution, while the Euro
stays drier. Maintained current middle-of-the-road forecast for now.
Temperatures look to remain on the cool side of normal after
.AVIATION...For McCarran...Tricky morning forecast. Northern
portions of the Las Vegas Valley have been blanketed with very low
clouds while southern portions of the valley have been spared with
ceilings from 3-6 kft. Expect these clouds to scatter out this
morning, creating an opportunity for the very low clouds to spread
southward. This low level moisture should lift with time later this
morning and might scatter out briefly this afternoon before another
slug of moisture brings another round of low ceilings...at or below
5 kft overnight tonight/tomorrow morning. Winds through the period
should remain light, favoring a southerly direction by the afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Fog and low ceilings possible across the area this
morning as clouds begin to clear over abundant low level moisture.
Generally light winds less than 10 kts expected for most with the
greatest potential for stronger winds around KDAG. Ceilings and
visibilities are likely to improve by this afternoon, but another
slug of moisture will bring the potential for lower ceilings
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures. In particular, any significant rain or wind and
any reports of flooding through the weekend.
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