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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 181000
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CALIFORNIA AND THE HIGH DESERTS. A
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL USHER IN STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. 
&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

TODAY HAS THE MAKINGS OF AN INTERESTING FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND AND ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LOW. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ALLOWED A MODEST MARINE
INFLUENCE TO CREEP INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. DEW POINTS IN THIS AREA ARE WELL INTO THE MID
40S. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE PICKING UP SPEED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL APPROACHES...WE EXPECT EVEN MORE MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA AS WELL. THIS IS LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EVEN DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS IN THIS
AREA. WESTERN INYO COUNTY WILL ALSO BE AN AREA THAT WILL SEE
INCREASED ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND OUR LOCAL CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ALSO ARE INDICATING ACTIVITY AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
LINCOLN...CENTRAL NYE AND MOHAVE COUNTIES MAY ALSO SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY INCREASE. HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A BIT LATER IN THE
DAY AND EVENING WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. SATURDAY...THE LOW
WILL STILL BE EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE WANING INTO SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

TRANSIENT RIDGING AND A WELL 
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 8-12 DEGREES 
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 
PERIOD. 

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REALLY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE 
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA. GFS TREND TOOL INDICATES THAT THIS THROUGH HAS 
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THAT 
SAID ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE 
EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS A BROAD-BRUSHED 
APPROACH WAS TAKEN WITH THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD 
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST (GUSTS OVER 40 
MPH)...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS PARTICULARLY IN FAVORED 
DOWNSLOPE AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN WORDING FOR AREAS OF 
BLOWING DUST WHICH CAN BE REFINED AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. THESE 
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH RH'S IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE 
DIGITS TO BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS. 
CURRENTLY MODELS ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY 
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COOL CONDITIONS TO NEAR OR EVEN JUST BELOW 
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS OFF MORE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE 
WEEK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THURSDAY 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY OR 
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...

FOR MCCARRAN...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (SPRING AND SHEEP MOUNTAINS)
WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A OVERCAST WILL PREVAIL. 

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NW ARIZONA...AND SE CALIFORNIA...
CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10-15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A REPEAT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

LERICOS/WOLCOTT

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