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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KVEF 291047
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT...THEN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY 
MOVES AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST FEW 
DAYS OF FEBRUARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
&&
 
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE 
AREA WAS AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS 
MORNING WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT INTO OUR 
FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE 
SOME TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS 
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. THE MOJAVE DESERT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. 
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...BECOMING A 
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS 
WILL ALLOW IT TO WRAP PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP INTO IT WITH 
PRECIPITATION SPREADING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. 
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NAM12...CONTINUE TO TARGET 
MOHAVE...CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH THE HEAVIEST 
PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THOSE MODELS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE HUALAPAI AND SPRING MOUNTAINS 
AS WELL AS THE MOJAVE PRESERVE. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM FOR 
JANUARY AND WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AT 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...AT THIS TIME IT 
LOOKS LIKE THE TOWN OF MT CHARLESTON MAY ONLY GET AN INCH OR TWO.  
FOR THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF 
RAIN FOR THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN 
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA SATURDAY PUSHING THE LOW SOUTH TO 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING FROM 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST 
MOHAVE COUNTY SATURDAY EVENING BUT THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END 
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN STORY INTO NEXT 
WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS OF HIGH 
CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DISTURBANCES 
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. ALL IN ALL A QUIET START TO THE WEEK 
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY 
WARMING EACH DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ONCE THE DRAINAGE WINDS DIMINISH THIS 
MORNING...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY BUT 
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 8 KTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY...WITH RAIN LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW 
CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN MOST APPROACH CORRIDORS. RAIN 
CHANCES WILL END ON SATURDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY 
NIGHT...BUT AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER 
AND THICKEN BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER 
MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON 
FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS...POOR VISIBILITY...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS 
WILL ALL BE ISSUES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTH TO 
SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY 
MORNING IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED 
AT THIS TIME BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
RAIN OR SNOW THAT IS OBSERVED.
&&

$$

HARRISON/WOLCOTT

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