000
FXUS65 KVEF 162216 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
309 PM PDT TUE MAR 16 2010
CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT THURSDAY NIGHT USHERING IN
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COULD NOT ASK FOR A
BETTER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST THERE SHOULD BE A
FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE
MOJAVE DESERT WILL PROBABLY BE THURSDAY DUE TO BETTER MIXING AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THE NAM/GFS NOW TAKE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS FAR WEST TAKING THE SHORTWAVE OVER
CLARK COUNTY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH FURTHER WEST TRAJECTORY AND
HIGHER PW VALUES POOLING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DID EXPAND AND
INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE FROM LINCOLN COUNTY WEST TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND
SHEEP RANGE AS WELL. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOJAVE
DESERT THURSDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. NORTH BREEZES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NORMAL
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST IN THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA WEATHER.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM THROUGH MONDAY RIDGING IS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND HENCE EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LIGHT
WINDS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY LATE
MONDAY. LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY TRACK THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. THE GFS SHOWS MORE
OF A PINCHED OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SPLIT FLOW MONDAY
AND THEN TRACKS IT SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND IT IS ESSENTIALLY A DRY
EVENT. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER
US AND BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. I TOOK A MORE MIDDLE PATH COMPROMISE AND
SLOWED THINGS DOWN AND BROUGHT IN SOME LOW POPS ON DAY EIGHT AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND DAY EIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN BULLHEAD
CITY AND LAKE HAVASU CITY WHERE NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SKIES WILL HAVE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
