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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KVEF 291616 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
916 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A few mountain showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly across the Sierra and southern Great Basin through
Monday. Thereafter, a warming trend will commence with widespread
triple digit heat building over the deserts by midweek. 

.UPDATE...Mid level cap from yesterday afternoon weakened a bit
overnight as slightly cooler air aloft associated with a weak upper
low coming into southern California. Due to limited moisture and
marginal instability today will look much like the past two day. The
Sierra Nevada and mountains Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln
Counties have the greatest probability of thunderstorms. Can not
totally rule out the Spring Mountains and the mountains of northwest
Arizona but the probabilities are less. Made some minor adjustments
to the POP/WX and SKY grids for this afternoon in Inyo and
Esmeralda Counties. Update out in a few minutes.

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

A broad deformation zone continues to influence the region with some
light shower activity persisting across Lincoln county this morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon across mainly the Sierra and southern Great Basin. A few
high based showers can also be expected across the Spring Mountains.
Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected with just some scattered
clouds and seasonable temperatures.  The low responsible for this
activity will begin to push into Arizona on Monday which will result
in precipitation chances becoming more favored for Eastern Lincoln
county as well as Mohave county.  Again, coverage will be only
isolated to scattered. 

By Tuesday, conditions will dry out and temperatures will begin to
climb upwards and reach into the triple digits along the Colorado
River and lower desert valleys. Tuesday looks to be the first day of
next upcoming week to reach into the above normal territory, though
it wont be significantly unusual for late May. 

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

High pressure still expected to produce hot and dry conditions
Wednesday through Friday with temperatures nearly 10 degrees above
normal by Friday. The ECMWF looks to have the strongest ridging and
was favored for temperatures. Currently forecasting 105 for Las
Vegas Friday which is only 2 shy of the record for the day. Not much
change expected for Saturday although the models are hinting at some
sort of upper low approaching the California coast. This may lead to
isolated thunderstorms in the Sierra and slight chance pops were
added to reflect this model trend. 


.AVIATION...For McCarran...Conditions today should closely mirror
Saturday with light and variable winds expected in the morning hours
before a more south-southeasterly wind develops in the afternoon.
Gusts may occasionally reach up to 20 knots but should be fairly
sporadic. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies with a few high based
afternoon showers over the Spring Mountains.  

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...A few high based showers and thunderstorms can be
expected today mainly across the Sierra and southern Great Basin as
well as the Spring Mountains. Pockets of convective turbulence and
gusty surface winds are likely near any shower activity.
Otherwise...fair weather with southerly afternoon winds in the 10-15
knot range will be common. 


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.



Short Term/Aviation...Outler
Long Term...Harrison

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