000
FXUS63 KEAX 051731
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND DISCUSSION SECTIONS...
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING
CONVECTION IN EASTERN KANSAS IS TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. IT HAS
GOTTEN SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT WAS
ENHANCED BY THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE STORMS IS INHIBITING THE
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...WHICH IS
HELPING TO HOLD DOWN THE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE RUC IS SHOWING
THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND BETTER THETA E AIR WILL BE CLIPPING THE
MIAMI AND LINN COUNTY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WARRANTING A
MENTION OF LOW POPS.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008/
WEAK SFC RIDGE WAS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK
RETURN FLOW TO THE WEST IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. A NARROW BAND OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H8 THETAE ADVECTION WAS GENERATING A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION FROM NERN NEB TO CNTRL/ERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE THIS MORNING
AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WANES. THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS TODAY
WITH WARMER H8 SW WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD
EXCEPT MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM FOR TODAY.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR THE
ERN GRIDS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE TONIGHT. CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE QUITE HIGH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS VERY
LOW.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS CONTINUING TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
IS GETTING SOME ADDED IMPETUS FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
IN THE THE UPPER FLOW THAT WAS ENHANCED BY THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. MAIN AREA OF
INSTABILITY WILL STAY WEST OF THE TAF SITES...SO WILL BE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
