000
FXAK67 PAJK 042001
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1201 PM AKDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF JUNEAU
AIRPORT. OTHERWISE...MARINE STRATUS AND FOG LAYER HAD BEEN LIFTED
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN
THE WAKE OF DISSIPATING WEAK TROUGH ALOFT...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
COASTAL REGIONS REPORT PERSISTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS ARE WELL
INITIALIZED AGAIN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIODS. PREFER TO USE THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A 991 MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM
IN THE SOUTH EASTERN GULF NEAR SOUTHWEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BECOME OCCLUDED AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST COASTAL SECTION EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ITS
TRIPLE POINT JUST WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE. EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT WINDS FOR SOUTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AND CLARENCE
STRAIT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD EXPERIENCE LIKELY POPS EXCEPT THE
NORTHERN ONE THIRD WHERE LESS POPS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...500H LOW WILL BE ABT 300 NM S OF SAND POINT 12Z SUN.
TROUGH ALF WILL EXTEND ENE FM LOW ALF TO OVR KETCHIKAN. THE ASSOCD
SXN OF THE POLAR FRONT ZONE WILL GEN REMAIN NEAR THE TROUGH ALF TO
ABT 600 NM TO THE S OF THIS TROUGH POSITION THROUGH MID WEEK.
ONE RESULT OF THIS LOCATION IS THAT THE PNHDL S OF FREDERICK SOUND
IS BEING ASSIGNED POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST
DOMAIN TO THE N.
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALF EXTENDS S FM OVR BARROW AND SSW FM OVER KING
SALMON. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN W OF OUR FCST DOMAIN THROUGH DAY
7. THE FARTHEST EAST SHOULD BE ABT 12Z MON WHEN IT EXTENDS S FM
OVR SEWARD, BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY W. THIS CYCLE OF MVMNT SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCD WITH A PLANETARY SCALE WAVE PATN OF FIVE TO FOUR.
MODELS...BGNG ABT 00Z TUE A SPREADOUT BETWEEN THE MSLP SOLUTIONS
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS RAPIDLY INCREASES. THE NAEFS SPREAD OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF MSLP REMAINS SMALL THROUGH DAY 7, AND THIS
IS THE MAIN REASON FOR BLENDING IN THE 12Z GFS SOLNS FOR SEA LVL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-041.
&&
$$
