000
FXUS61 KCTP 170133
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
933 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR WITH PW </= 0.25 ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND SFC
HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A MUCH
COLDER NIGHT THAN WE'VE SEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT BREEZES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
TEMPS DROPPING 35 TO 40 DEGS FROM DAYTIME HIGHS AS MENTIONED BY
EARLIER FORECASTER. THESE MINS WILL STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS.
DEWPOINTS ARE SO LOW THAT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED...EVEN WITH AIR
TEMPS GOING BLO RIVER WATER TEMPS IN THE U30S/40F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SPRAWLING HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE ERN
STATES. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
DURING THE DAY TIMES...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS AT NIGHT.
JUST HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WED WILL BE THE
ONLY MARKS AGAINST THE SKY GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK...WITH CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH INTO SAT. THEN...FULL-LATITUDE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND TRAVERSE THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS
TO OUR WEST...AND GFS AND ECMWF BEGINNING TO LINE UP MORE WITH
TIMING OF FEATURES. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SUN/SUN NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE VERY MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING THE FROPA...WITH THE
BEST TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION ATTM IN THE SUN/SUN NGT TIMEFRAME.
A REINTRODUCTION OF COLDER AIR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT SOME
SNOWFLAKES IN THE MIX FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AS TEMPS DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MIDWEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AM VLY FOG IS PSBL ONLY IN THE DEEPEST VALLEY OF THE NRN TIER
WHERE AIR TEMPS MAY GO FAR ENUF BELOW RIVER TEMPS OF U30S TO NR
40F.
OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...LA CORTE
