000
FXUS63 KSGF 231052
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS...TO MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTING WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THERE ARE REALLY NO RETURNS ON RADAR WITH
THIS FEATURE...JUST ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS. NORTH WINDS
WILL PICK UP A BIT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CORN BELT REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO THE
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER. A CHILLY NIGHT IS THEN ON
TAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S FROM ROLLA DOWN TO
WEST PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AS THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS
PEAKING OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
IT THEN APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MCS ACTIVITY
FOR THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE
AXIS WILL THROW OUT AN ANCHOR FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAIN 500 MB AXIS WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO...SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. MEANWHILE...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THIS RIDGE. A LOOK AT
LOW LEVEL THETA-E CHARTS INDICATES THAT THE MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE CORN BELT REGION...SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MISSOURI. FINALLY...WIND FIELDS SUPPORT CORFIDI
VECTORS ORIENTATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. WE HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED 30
TO 50 POPS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE
WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. JUST EXPECT PERIODIC CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. WE WILL SEE WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BOTH HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. ONE FINAL NOTE FOR THOSE PLANNING TO BE ON AREA
LAKES...THERE WILL BE FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. LONG STRETCHES OF LAKE ORIENTATED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH MAY EASILY GET INTO THE WHITECAP RANGE.
LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN INDICATE THAT WE WILL GET INTO MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE THREAT FOR MCS ACTIVITY. IT WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EYES WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES FOR ANY EMERGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. IF ANY SUCH
ENERGY CAN PASS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY...THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WITH JUST
SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KT.
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE JLN TERMINAL AREA. FOR NOW...JUST INDICATED A INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS TSRA POTENTIAL ATTM IS
TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION IN THE TAF. IF
CONFIDENCE/POTENTIAL IN TSRA INCREASES...LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE THIS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL
