000
FXUS64 KBMX 200957 CCA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
431 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE TIMING OF THIS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME.
RAIN WILL BEGIN AFTER 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AREA WIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. INSTABILITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING
IN THIS PART OF THE REGION AS THE BULK OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL
STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL STILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEING TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL KEEP STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO FOR NOW...BUT WILL
DECREASE CONFIDENCE LEVEL A BIT.
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SET TO EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DUE TO WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS AND EURO ARE
ALMOST SPOT ON WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OCCLUDES AND SLIDES
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE EURO...WITH 1000-500MB
AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTING...DARE I MENTION IT...SNOW.
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR AREAS NORTH OF A MILLPORT...TO BIRMINGHAM...TO MT CHEAHA LINE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF THE EURO STARTS TO TREND
TOWARD THE GFS OR VICE VERSA.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR BY MONDAY EVENING
AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECOND SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN
THE START OF THE PRECIP MAY HAVE TO BE DELAYED EVEN FARTHER...WITH
RAIN BEGINNING LATE ON THURSDAY.
19
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NSW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IN FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY.
88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 71 50 57 37 50 / 10 50 90 50 30
ANNISTON 72 49 58 36 51 / 10 50 90 50 30
BIRMINGHAM 72 49 56 36 52 / 10 70 80 50 30
TUSCALOOSA 71 49 56 37 53 / 10 90 70 50 30
CALERA 71 50 56 36 52 / 10 80 80 50 30
AUBURN 73 49 60 37 53 / 10 40 90 30 30
MONTGOMERY 73 51 61 39 55 / 10 70 80 30 20
TROY 73 50 61 39 55 / 10 50 90 30 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19/88
