000
FXUS63 KMKX 061959
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008
FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MILDER
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS FOR
TONIGHT IS NORTHERN OHIO...WHERE LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. WILL GO WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN FROM THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...MAINLY
FROM 18Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD
ALSO HAS BEST AIR COLUMN MOISTURE PROFILES PER AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
THUS...WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE WEST DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION DUE TO LACK OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES THE PREFERRED EXTENDED MODELS PER HPC
BLENDED FIELDS. THE ECMWF DIGS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN USA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA
DRY. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW ON SATURDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE OPENING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY MONDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 1000/500MB THICKNESSES
POSSIBLY REACHING 570 DKM BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD...PERHAPS CRACKING THE 70S FOR HIGHS.
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH WOULD PUSH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTED HIGH AND
PLAINS TROUGH RESULTING IN PRETTY STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND. WHITE
CAPS NOTED ON THE CAMS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR
