000
FXUS62 KJAX 171822
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER TX IN
BASE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TOWARD FL PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST IMPACTING TX/LA THIS
AFTN. THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SHRA. LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACRS THE SRN
TIER.
.SHORT TERM...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FCST TONIGHT RANGING FROM
MID 50S N TO MID 60S S AND COAST WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED. CHANGES OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TREKS EWD ARRIVING AT APALACHEE BAY AND FL W COAST BY MORNING AND
LIFTING THE FRONT NWD. DEEP SW TO WLY FLOW WILL SPREAD THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NE FL. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PCT
FOR MOST OF NE FL AND 20 PCT ALONG THE STATE LINE IN THE MORN THEN
SPREADING A SLGT CHANCE NWD INTO SE GA BY AFTN. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO AGREEMENT FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR AND
AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT POPS A TAD BELOW GUIDANCE. IF THE
SHORTWAVE PRESENCE COINCIDES WITH MAX HEATING THEN POPS MAY NEED
TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE. SWLY WINDS USUALLY SPELLS VERY WARM
TEMPS BUT WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS WILL HOLD MAXES IN MID 80S.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL DRIVE THE MOISTURE PLUME SWD. ANOTHER FRONT WILL SAG
INTO CTRL GA BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DO NO EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH OUR AREA. SWLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE TO
THE S AND WEAKENING FRONT N OF AREA. EXPECT FEWER CLOUDS AND MAXES
IN THE UPR 80S. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...AN UPR TROUGH IS FCST TO RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST
THRU THE WEEK WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA MAINTAINING SWLY FLOW ALL WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
IN THE LOW 90S DAYTIME AND MID/UPR 60S AT NIGHT. PERIODIC
DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THESE WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOW CHANCE
PRECIP ESPECIALLY DIURNAL TSTMS LATER IN THE WEEK. IT`S TOO SOON
TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TMRW...INCLUDED VCSH IN TAFS...ALSO TEMPO 5SM
-SHRA TWRD 18Z TMRW IN KGNV TAF.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND 2-4FT SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW. LATER
TMRW THROUGH TMRW NGT...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LLVL FLOW
WILL YIELD INCREASING W TO SW SFC WINDS. WINDS COULD REACH SCA
CRITERIA ACRS OFFSHORE COMPONENT LATE TMRW AFTN THRU TMRW NGT...
BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY. THROUGH NEXT WEEK, MODERATE SW FLOW WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...20-60NM OFFSHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THOUGH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE...STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 86 61 87 / 10 20 10 10
SSI 63 84 66 85 / 10 20 10 10
JAX 62 86 63 87 / 10 30 20 10
SGJ 65 86 66 86 / 10 30 20 10
GNV 62 85 63 88 / 10 30 20 10
OCF 65 85 64 86 / 10 40 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/WOLF
