000
FXUS64 KJAN 172005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE U/L TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL PHASE WITH A
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETURN MONDAY MORNING.
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR POPS SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WILL CUT SLIGHT
BELOW GUIDANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREAS./15/
.LONG TERM...MONDAY TROUGH SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER VORTEX WILL SPIN
OVER QUEBEC AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE...
LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN AND
IS REPLACED BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL PLACE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BEFORE
UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
WEST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS OUR REGION NEXT WEEK. THE MOST NOTABLE DISTURBANCE WILL
SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO OUR
CWA TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT
INTO OUR CWFA BEFORE STALLING AND THEN RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND LITTLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE WETTER THIS
RUN WITH THE PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE WL CONTINUE WITH SLGT TO CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WE COME UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST AND LESS OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AT MOST SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
IN THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND LITTLE WAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /22/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTER TUESDAY...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION AND BECOME ESTABLISHED AS A
RESILIENT FORCE OVER NEW ENGLAND...FAR SE CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CHUNK OF
UPPER ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
PACIFIC...CARVING OUT A MASSIVE TROUGH BEFORE THE WEEKEND. THIS
SITUATION MAY BE RATHER STAGNANT INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE
NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF GETTING RATHER
"BLOCKED UP". OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE RIGHT IN BETWEEN THESE
TROUGHS...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGING STRONGLY SUGGESTING WARMTH. ON THE
INITIAL GLANCE THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TOO GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCES
EITHER...BUT THAT MIGHT BE A HASTY ASSUMPTION. SEEMS THAT A LITTLE
ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION COULD DELIVER
VERY SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTION TO THE AREA ALTHOUGH ULTIMATE COVERAGE
IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FUEL DIURNAL
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL BE AROUND THE AREA INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENT EFFECTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT COULD BE A
BIGGER FACTOR. FOLLOWED LATEST MEX GUIDANCE VERY CLOSELY ON TEMPS
AND POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS IT LOOKS EXTREMELY AGREEABLE.
BY MONDAY EXPECT LOWS BELOW 60 AND HIGHS BELOW 80 TO MAYBE BE A
THING OF THE PAST. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
MEI/HBG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 57 84 60 / 0 0 3 1
MERIDIAN 80 55 82 58 / 0 0 7 6
VICKSBURG 80 56 84 62 / 0 0 1 1
HATTIESBURG 78 55 84 62 / 0 0 1 1
NATCHEZ 77 56 83 60 / 0 0 1 1
GREENVILLE 80 61 83 60 / 0 0 5 1
GREENWOOD 80 58 82 61 / 0 0 13 3
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
15/22
