000
FXUS63 KIND 172312
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN IOWA WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. AS IT DOES...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN VFR. BY
06-07Z THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD SHIFT THE
WINDS AT IND AND LAF TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS BUT LEAVE
THE WINDS AT HUF AND BMG IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SMALL
BUT STRONG LOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT IND AND LAF. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCTS AT
THESE SITES AS THE LOW TRACKS BY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED
AT LAF AND IND AS THE LOW GOES BY. BY 11-12Z THE LOW WILL BE EXITING
QUICKLY EAST. AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN AND WINDS WILL
GET A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE ONLY HAD SOME SPRINKLES WITH IT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH HOLDING OFF THE
PCPN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM AND SOMEWHAT THE
GFS HAVE A VERY ODD LOOKING BULLSEYE OF 1C TEMPS MOVING THROUGH SRN
WI TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON GUID LOW TEMPS. WENT CLOSER
TO THE 3 HRLS LOWS. STILL NOT A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO SYSTEM.
WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE PREFER THE 3 HRLY POPS WHICH ARE A CHANCE.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTANT WITH MOVING THE PCPN OUT DURING THE
MORNING. WILL ONLY KEEP A CHANCE THEN. COLDER AND UNSTABLE SC WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CAA WILL HOLD
THE TEMPS DOWN. THE COOLER MET TEMPS LOOK BETTER. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN MONDAY AFTN. WILL KEEP THE POPS THEN THAT WAS IN THE PRVS
FCST.
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION. THE GFS IS FALLING IN LINE WITH THE ECM
FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR THE PRVS RUN THE GFS WAS KEEPING THINGS WET
WHILE THE ECM WAS GOING DRY. NOW THEY ARE BOTH DRY ON SAT. THERE IS
A GOOD WARMING TREND. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO THE 70S BY THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...JOHNSON
