000
FXUS65 KPIH 080906
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT MON SEP 8 2008
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE HIGHLIGHTS CLEAR SKIES OVER ID THIS
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU TUE EVENING. FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL TUE MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS IN OVER OREGON AND SWLY
FLOW SETS UP OVER REGION. 00Z NAM RUN INDICATED MINIMAL PRECIP
WHILE 06Z RUN HAS INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OVER SERN ID MTNS. FOR
NOW...KEPT QPF...POP...AND SLT CHC RAINSHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR TUE
AFTN AND EVENING FOR SERN MTNS.
ONCE TROUGH MOVES THRU...THINGS GET INTERESTING. NAM12 SHOWING CLOSED
LOW DROPPING DOWN ALMOST DUE S FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. AGAIN...06Z
AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE QUITE LARGER VERSUS 00Z RUN WITH UNSETTLED
WX EXPECTED FROM WED AFTN THRU THUR NIGHT AT LEAST. GFS ANOTHER
STORY...HIGHLIGHTING OPEN WAVE WITH UPPER ENERGY SUPPORT STAYING
WELL TO OUR N WITH NO PRECIP FOR ANY SERN ID AREAS. ECMWF SHOWING
HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THE TWO...OPEN WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA
THEN CLOSING UP OVER SERN ID AND PRECIP OVER SERN ID. OBVIOUSLY
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS SUCH...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST. EXPECT NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO START
CONVERGING ON PREFERRED SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR MORE CERTAINTY.
ONCE LOW MOVES OUT OF AREA BY FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM W. AFFECTS
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FELT THRU NEXT MONDAY. RENWICK
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS DRY
AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TODAY.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET.
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS
WOULD BE STRONGEST. WINDS MAY STICK AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
