000
FXUS64 KHUN 171906
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A VERY FOGGY START...THE SKY HAS TURNED PARTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY RISEN INTO THE 70S...DEFINITELY MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DON`T EXPECT ANOTHER COLD DAY LIKE YESTERDAY
FOR SOME TIME...IN FACT SOME SUMMERLIKE WEATHER MIGHT BE ON THE
HORIZON BEFORE NEXT WEEK IS DONE.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A COMMON THEME FOR THE NEXT THREE OR FOUR NIGHTS IS GOING TO BE
VALLEY DECOUPLING...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT IF NOT CALM AT NIGHT. THE FAVORED COOL
SPOTS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
THOSE SAME SPOTS COULD ALSO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN EVERYWHERE
ELSE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DESPITE THOSE TWO NIGHTS BEING
MUCH WARMER OVERALL.
THE FIRST WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BE A
WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHWARD...AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE HURON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT LIMITED...THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN
AT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY. BUT AGAIN...THE
LACK OF DEEP STRONG MOISTURE MEANS THAT EVEN THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT.
ANY SHRA OR ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD END BY SUNSET...AND THEN DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WE GET PUSHED INTO THE WARM
SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ROTATING IN FOR TUESDAY. WILL
INDICATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING MONDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN SRN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND THROUGH TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A LARGE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND THE CONTINUED
CLOSED LOW CENTERED IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WITH A
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...THE TUESDAY
FRONT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT LIKELY HAVE A HARD
TIME MAKING IT MUCH TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA DUE TO ITS WEAKNESS AND
INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH. AS A RESULT...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBABLY THE BETTER CHANCE IS ON THURSDAY
BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD. LIKELY SCENARIO IS
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH. IF THE UPPER ENERGY INDICATED AS GOING
THROUGH THE "DIRTY RIDGE" PANS OUT...WE MIGHT EVEN HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT THE GFS IS
OVERDOING BOTH DEWPOINTS (75+ LOOKS EXCESSIVE) AND PRECIP
(WIDESPREAD RAIN BOTH DAYS). ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORM...CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. IF
THERE ARE NOT STORMS...HIGHS WOULD EASILY APPROACH OR EXCEED 90.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 55 76 53 82 / 10 40 20 10
SHOALS 56 78 53 83 / 10 40 20 10
CULLMAN 54 78 55 81 / 10 40 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 54 74 52 79 / 10 40 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 57 79 56 82 / 10 40 20 10
FORT PAYNE 50 78 50 81 / 10 40 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
