000
FXUS63 KPAH 060942
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WILL NEED TO BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE PUSH OF
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINLY LIMITED TO PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KENTUCKY FROM MAYFIELD UP TO NEAR OWENSBORO. MOST AREAS
OF SE MO AND SRN IL ARE STILL HANGING IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30...WITH ONGOING POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. WILL NEED TO EXTEND AN ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING /UNTIL 18Z/ FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SE MO. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY MOVE ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM. SO FAR...IMPACT HAS MAINLY
BEEN LIMITED TO ELEVATED SURFACES...AS ANTECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS
HAVE KEEP PAVEMENT TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.
ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
SFC LOW AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY CHANGE ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES OCCUR OVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT...ESP ALONG/NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING...SO NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR IMPACT AT THIS TIME.
WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED...MAINLY FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES. HOWEVER IN THE COLD
FRONT`S WAKE SATURDAY...HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN ALL AREAS.
ALSO...THE 00Z GFS INDICATES ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI NIGHT WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS GET COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z MON ECMWF STILL
HOLDS ONTO THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER OVER WRN KY. DECIDED TO LEAVE
SMALL CHCS FOR R/S SATURDAY IN FOR NOW SOUTH OF THE OH RVR.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME. BEYOND THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING SO ONLY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MVRF CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT
ALL SITES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BALLARD-CALDWELL-CARLISLE-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-
HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOLLINGER-
BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ALEXANDER-
EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.
&&
$$
