000
FXUS62 KMFL 190542
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
.UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS.
STARTING OUT CLEAR, THEN FEW CU AND CI FRIDAY. 10 KT NW WINDS AFT
14Z WILL BECOME NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS EAST TERMINALS BY 20Z/21Z
FRI AFTN. KAPF WILL SHIFT TO NW AT 8 KT BY ARND 17Z. WINDS AFT ABT
01Z WILL GO LGT NNE TO VRBL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010/
UPDATE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...AS
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK. SHORTWAVE AXIS...AS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS
AS IT DOES SO. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL END OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
FORECAST DETAILS. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...SLOWING DOWN TO 5-7 KTS BY
19/02Z AND PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN BY 19/9Z. A SCT COULD DECK AT
10K WILL BECOME FEW ALSO BY 19/9Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010/
DISCUSSION...
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS AN INCREASING TREND IN
THE COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...BEFORE IT
EJECTS RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC LEAVING A
CLEARING TREND IN ITS WAKE. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND
SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE
DRAINAGE FLOW LEADING TO A COOL MORNING ALONG BOTH COASTS. ASIDE
FROM ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.75 INCHES. LIGHT
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS...EXPECT A MORE PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS
TIME...WITH RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEARING TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH FRONT EXPECT TO PASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...WITH MODELS ALSO
INDICATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AS WELL. DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW RETURN AS THE SURFACE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MARINE...
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE FOR STRONG/GUSTY WEST
WINDS. NORTHEAST SWELL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...NO CONCERNS.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
GLADES/HENDRY/INLAND COLLIER. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR
REMAINDER OF WATCH AREA...HAVE LEFT WATCH IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 55 76 64 / - - - 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 59 77 66 / - - - 10
MIAMI 74 58 77 65 / - - - 10
NAPLES 70 53 80 59 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR INLAND BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM
BEACH.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
