000
FXHW60 PHFO 112021
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT OCT 11 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS A LOW DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER KAUAI MONDAY AND
THEN OVER OAHU EARLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TO A SURFACE
TROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD CARRY THE
VOLCANIC HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND ONTO THE OTHER ISLANDS UNTIL
THE TRADE WINDS BEGIN RETURNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
EAST OF THE ISLANDS MOVING IN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND
STILL FOCUSED NEAR MOUNTAIN OR WINDWARD AREAS. A LOW WILL FORM ON
THE FRONT ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF OUR ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH KAUAI ON MONDAY...WEAKENING AND STALLING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR KAUAI MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FINALLY RETREAT WESTWARD ON
TUESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WET
WEATHER OVER KAUAI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OAHU MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER ISLANDS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH MORE
ACTIVITY DURING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE HEATING. THE SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL PRODUCE MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND ALSO RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY OF VOLCANIC HAZE FROM THE KILAUEA VOLCANO AREA MOVING
ONTO THE OTHER ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING BACK SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT. VARYING AMOUNT HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY...CLEARING MONDAY BUT MAY RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BECOMING STRONGER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS SUNDAY ON THE FRONTAL BAND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE GFS
PLACES THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LOW...ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI MONDAY AFTERNOON
MOVING IT TO ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EUROPEAN AND NAVY MODELS PLACE IT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AFFECTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EAST OF THE
TROUGH. THE GENERAL PICTURE HOWEVER IS FOR SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM
NEAR KAUAI EAST OF THE WEAKENING FRONT MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THE OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THIS TROUGH AND LINGER INTO
TUESDAY...HENCE THE FOCUS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON KAUAI AND OAHU SUNDAY
MIDDAY OR AFTERNOON AND AFFECT EXPOSED NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL
ISLANDS EXCEPT LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE. SURF SHOULD BE JUST UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WEST FACING SHORES. THIS HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE EFFECTIVE BEGINNING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
HOAG
