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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

095 
FXUS63 KGID 242309
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
609 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Sprinkles have mostly cleared out of central Nebraska as of early 
afternoon. The axis of strongest winds is gradually shifting to 
the east and decreasing. A cold front is gradually making its way 
through the region, which will serve to shift winds to the 
northwest and eventually to the northeast this evening and 
tonight. 

Behind this front, expect vastly different weather tomorrow. 
Precipitation chances return late tonight into early Tuesday 
morning, aided by a slow-moving upper level wave and associated 
upper-level jet streak. I have maintained a mention of thunder for
Tuesday morning. This potential is probably pretty low, but there
is some instability and SREF probabilities show ~10% chance for 
thunder. Along with the rain, breezy north winds will accompany 
high temperatures that struggle to reach the 50s. Overall, 
tomorrow just won't be a very nice day. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

This is a fairly active long-term forecast, but I will do my best
to keep it brief.

Precipitation is expected to gradually come to an end late Tuesday 
night into Tuesday morning. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the 
mid 30s across most of the area, but frost formation will be 
difficult with stiff north winds and plenty of cloud cover. 

That will be a different story on Thursday morning. Winds are 
expected to go almost calm Wednesday night as surface high builds
in across the area. Low temperatures are expected to drop into 
the low 30s for most of the area, making widespread frost likely. 
Future shifts likely will need to consider frost/freeze 
headlines, especially for northern and western parts of the 
forecast area. 

The next set of upper level waves are expected to impact the area 
Thursday through Sunday. The first of which will pass through 
Nebraska Thursday into Friday, while the next is forecast to drop 
much farther to the south Saturday into Sunday. With both 
systems, instability will be limited for central Nebraska and 
north central Kansas, so I don't have any mention of thunder in 
the forecast at this time. 

There is some concern with precipitation type, though. The latest 
GFS is especially cold, and actually develops significant snow
from Lexington to Ord Friday night into Saturday morning. The 
ECMWF isn't as cold, so I kept all precipitation liquid through 
this time period. I did continue a mix of rain/snow on Saturday 
night into Sunday, as precipitation comes to an end and cold air 
is advected in on the back side of the system. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Cloud cover will increase and thicken tonight and Tuesday behind a
cold frontal boundary. Cloud ceilings are expected to mainly be at
MVFR but may lower near or below IFR at times. There will also be
intermittent chances for rain and possibly a thunderstorm and have
maintained a VCSH at this time. North wind speeds will increase
with gusts around 25kts forecast for much of Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay