000
FXUS61 KCTP 220016
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
816 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF PLEASANT LATE
SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL...NEARLY PERFECT LATE SUMMER EVENING IN
PROGRESS WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITY. NO NEED FOR
AN EVENING UPDATE AS THINGS ARE VERY MUCH ON TRACK.
EXPECT LOCALLY DENSE FOG TO FORM TWD DAWN IN THE DEEPER RVR VLYS
OF THE NCENT MTNS.
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CU ON FRIDAY AS LLVL MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE
AND WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SSE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER M/SUNNY AND
DRY DAY IN STORE ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
XPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND LLVL MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SRLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION.
A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVG THROUGH ONT/QUE
WILL CROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS ENS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE HIGHEST PROB OF PCPN OVR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA CENTERED AROUND 25/00Z.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GEFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SYS SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER STRETCH OF FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION PROVIDING NEARLY
CLOUDLESS SKIES. A FEW CIRRUS ARE DUSTING EXTREME WESTERN PA
STRETCHING WEST INTO OHIO AND MICHIGAN...LIFTING NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA...ALLOWING WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PA. MOISTURE REMAINS STARVED...HOWEVER
IT WOULD BE CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD POOL
WEST INTO KLNS/KMDT AND NEIGHBORING AIRFIELDS OVERNGT. VALLEY
AIRFIELDS COULD SEE THIN LAYER OF RADITIOANAL MVFR FOG DEV ARND
08-11Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A DRY PATTERN ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS THRU SAT...BEFORE APPROACHING FRONTAL BNDRY
SLIDES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. MOISTURE SLOWLY POOLS INTO
MID/UPPER LVLS SAT AFTN. CHC/S FOR SHRA/TSRA GRADUALLY INCREASE AS
FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES SAT AFTN/EVE...AND MAY BE ENHANCED FOR
KBFD NEAR AN EXPECTED LK BREEZE SAT AFTN.
A COLD FRONTAL BNDRY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GLAKES
REGION AND ADJACENT CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHRA/TSRA.
THE FRONT COULD STALL OUT JUST SE OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE REMNANTS OF TS FAY TO CREEP NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS/ADVERSE FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LACORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LACORTE/LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BEACHLER
