000
FXUS63 KIND 140406
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1106 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXITING SW INDIANA...WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE TO THE NE IS ABOUT TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL DATA AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL EXTEND MENTION OF -RA THRU 7 AM THIS
MORNING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. A MIXTURE OF IFR/LIFR WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST 15Z THIS MORNING...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AFTER THIS SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIP MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MFVR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...KIND
AND KLAF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010/
UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT IR SATELLITE IS
STILL SHOWING A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES. ALSO...INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW...AND MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALL DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 104 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 104 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010/
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPS AS THE
UPPER LOW NOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA/SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE
MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY...AND OCCLUDED FRONT/TROWAL
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. KIND-88D LOOP WAS
INDICATING A SHIELD OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OHIO
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUDED FRONT AND
TROWAL. RADAR TRENDS FAVOR THE RAIN SPREADING SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH. MOS IS HANDLING THIS WELL WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
NOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE BELOW 700 MILLIBARS PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS...AND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES WILL ALSO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE OTHER WORDS...PLENTY OF FORCING
AND MOISTURE TO KEEP A GOOD CHANCE AROUND SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT TOO AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN. WILL ALSO
TREND TOWARD MORE SKY COVER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE
STILL LINGERING.
IN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AS
THEY ARE BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NATION'S MID SECTION
AND THEN TENNESSEE VALLEY...ASSOCIATED RAINFALL COULD BRUSH MAINLY
OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY MIDWEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
IT DRY...THOUGH. WILL BRING RAIN BACK IN ON SATURDAY THOUGH AS THE
SLOWER AND PREFERRED ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA.
MOS TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND APPEAR
REASONABLE BASED ON THICK CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...SMF
UPDATE...TDUD
