000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070338
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING...BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. WE DID SEE
SOME FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF MOUNT BALDY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 300 PM MST. SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY AND WARM ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING 5-8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WITH THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DEEP MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH-BASED CUMULUS OVER THE
MTNS...WITH A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE WHITE MTNS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY AS THE DRYING
NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCED BY THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH DIMINISHES. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE WEST COAST...WHILE A RIDGE EXPANDS
WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...AND SHOULD IMPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...STARTING WITH LOW
CHANCES SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT...MAINLY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGE COULD
OCCUR IF AND WHEN THE WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE STATE...BUT TIMING THIS FEATURE WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WE WILL KEEP LOW STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
JJ
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
MOST OF NRN AZ. AFT 18Z SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF
DAYS 1 AND 2.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...............DL
AVIATION/FIRE WX.....DL
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
