000
FXUS66 KLOX 072015
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
115 PM PDT SUN SEP 7 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
VTU/LA COUNTY MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT SO FAR THEY ARE SHOWING VERY
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND I DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THEM.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS FELL A FEW
DEGREES TODAY IN THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 12Z
GFS SHOWS THE TROF DIGGING A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND WE
COULD ACTUALLY SEE THE COOLING TREND LASTING ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE
MARINE LYR, WHICH HAS BEEN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL AND LOWER
COASTAL VALLEY ZONES THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL PUSH FARTHER INLAND EACH
OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE
CLOUDS REACHING THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY OR THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS HAPPEN BY TUESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...WITH THE GFS DIGGING THE TROF FARTHER SOUTH
IT MAY TAKE AN EXTRA DAY OR TWO BEFORE TEMPS START TO REBOUND.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER LOW BUT ALSO IS FASTER MOVING THE
TROF EAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN AN EARLIER WARMING TREND.
FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS AS THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS A LITTLE MORE PLAUSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1800Z
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN CA WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER AREA WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A CATALINA
EDDY WILL PERSIST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD EXTENDING WELL OFFSHORE
WITH TOPS WERE AROUND 1.3KFT THIS MORNING WILL LINGER NEAR
SHORE...TOPS WILL LIKELY ASCEND A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS WILL RETURN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 005 FOR A PERIOD IN THE EVENING THEN ASCEND
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. IT IS LIKELY VISIBILITY WILL BE 4SM OR
HIGHER OVERNIGHT.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z. IT IS LIKELY CIGS 008 WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AND CHANCE
BR WILL RESTRICT VSBYS TO 4SM.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
NOT VERY LIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
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