000
FXUS63 KLMK 170530
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER MOST OF OUR FA THRU THE PERIOD
WHILE TEMPS WED CONTINUE A SLOW WARMING TREND. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...2 SYSTEMS WILL BYPASS OUR REGION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THRU
THE PERIOD WHILE LOW LEVEL/SFC FLOW CONTS WITH A NLY COMPONENT.
CU FILLED IN RAPIDLY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD DURG
THE AFTN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE REACHED. FOR TNGT...CU FIELD SHUD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM N TO S...HOWEVER MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE E/NE AS WINDS AT CLOUD LEVEL VEER
FROM NNE TO ENE. BOTTOM LINE FOR CLOUDS TNGT...FEWEST ACRS OUR NRN
MOST FA...WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR NC KY AND MCLDY
CONDS SCNTRL AND ECNTRL SECTIONS OF KY. TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE
CLOUDS WITH COLDEST READINGS ACRS SRN INDIANA...UPR 30S OVER OUR NRN
MOST COUNTIES...WHILE SCNTRL KY COUNTIES WITH CLDS...FALL ONLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 40S.
FOR WED...LOW CLOUDS SHUD AGAIN PREVAIL OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF
OUR FA WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER NCNTRL KY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS
FOR SRN INDIANA. CU SHUD DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MRNG/MIDDAY WHERE
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLR TO START THE DAY. CLDS WILL HOLD TEMPS UNDER 60
ACRS SCNTRL KY WITH LOWER/MID 60S EXPECTED ELSEWHRE.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SPLIT FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN JET WILL BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL MARK THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN POLAR AIR AND VERY MILD
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN JET WILL BE CENTERED OVER
FLORIDA AND WILL MARK THE EXIT REGION OF A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO LIE OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN THESE TWO JETS
WILL NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO VERY MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE.
DRIER AIR WILL INITIALLY LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARDS CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A COOL START THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE
LOWER 60S. OUR WARMEST HIGHS THURSDAY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS THURSDAY WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SAGS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER LATE THURSDAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DIVING ENERGY ASSOCIATED THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL CARVE
OUT A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STRONG DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF ONE OR MORE LINES OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...PUSHING IT EAST OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A 50%
CHANCE OF PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY ALONG WITH PROBABLE LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE.
..MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AS THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR MONDAY. BLUSTERY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY...DIMINISHING BY TUESDAY. COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT
WILL BE AT KSDF. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS COULD
HAPPEN BY MID MORNING...HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT
WITH THE HEATING ACTING ON MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ONLY CONCERN FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THIS PERIOD MAY BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR VSBY'S AT KBWG. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES ROUGHLY A 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE
A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THAT PERIOD.
NOTE: LEX ASOS OBSERVATIONS WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL AFTER 13Z
WEDNESDAY... WITH CIGS IN THE VFR CATEGORY WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE
A TAF FOR THAT SITE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........DK/11
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........RJS
