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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 030314
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1014 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. KMSN AND KUES WILL LIKELY SEE 2-3
HOURS OF 3-5SM BR WHILE KENW WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF GROUND
FOG RANGING FROM 1-4SM. MO CLEAR SKIES TO THEN PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON WED AND INTO WED EVE. 

FOR WED NT...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION WILL INITIATE CONVECTION AND A MCS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL
WI. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY SLIDE SEWD INTO THE NRN CWA...BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCT TSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER ALL OF SRN WI AS WELL. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH BY THE 
EVENING HOURS. LOOKS QUIET TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE SOME 
PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA 
TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. 

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE 
MORNING AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WEST IN THE 
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW INTO THE 
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO WISCONSIN AS THE
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE STRONG 100 KNOT JET MAX STAYS WELL NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THEN THE NAM HAS
SEVERAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHICH
APPEARS TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.

THE 45 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET REACHES WEST CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASES TO 55
KNOTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING. 850 MB DEW POINTS RISE TO 15 TO ALMOST 20 CELSIUS 
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ELEVATED CAPE INCREASES TO 1500
JOULES/KG IF LIFTED FROM JUST ABOVE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK TO MODERATE.

THE NAM LIFTS THE SURFACE AND 925MB WARM FRONT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MOST FORECAST MODELS. THE GFS
HAS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM AND 00Z ECMWF KEEPING THE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN MUCH LESS RAINFALL.

THEN THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE HUMID WARM
SECTOR. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 3800
JOULES/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CAP OF AROUND 60 TO 100
JOULES/KG AROUND 860 MB IN THE SOUTHEAST...THAT WEAKENS TO ONLY 
AROUND 2 JOULES/KG BY EVENING IN AREAS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
DELLS. NSHARP SEVERE PARAMETERS INCREASE IN THIS AREA. ANY
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE HIGH PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH A STRONG 55
KNOT WIND AT 700 MB ANY UPSTREAM LINEAR MCS WOULD PUSH RAPIDLY
EAST. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN AS
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE
STRONG 105 KNOT JET ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. 

THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES OF 3800 JOULES/KG THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITH THE CAP WEAKENING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT DURING THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODEL SPEED OF THE FRONT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DRIER
AIR.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH A SECOND
TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A RATHER FAST WEST FLOW
OVER WISCONSIN.

BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH...REACHING
KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN
FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE FLOW IS ZONAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. THAT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ON MONDAY. 

A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY. THIS HIGH STILL EXTENDS BACK INTO WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY.

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AFFECTS WISCONSIN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP ANY RETURN
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST. 

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH BY THE 
EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT THEN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME 2 TO 5 SM FOG 
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE 
CENTER OF THE HIGH. COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF DENSE FOG IN A FEW 
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. 

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MARINE... 

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ