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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 230222
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. ALSO WL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE EAST.  

POSSIBLE A FEW -SHRA MAY AFFECT WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
WI. HOWEVER BEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. NO REASON TO ALTER THU
POPS AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT KENW AND KUES LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SFC DEWPTS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WI WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRA TO TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY. CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD DURING AND AFTER
-SHRA DUE TO MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY MORNING. 

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON 
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY 
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY 
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE 
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE 
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. 

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE 
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD 
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER 
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN 
MOST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT 
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE 
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST 
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD 
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE 
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES 
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT 
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY 
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE 
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD 
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY 
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C. 
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL 
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT 
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA 
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES 
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A 
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST 
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH 
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH 
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO 
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON 
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE 
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING. 

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE 
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO 
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE 
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH 
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. 
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE 
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK