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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 250840
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOME FOG IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA 
AT THIS TIME...AHEAD OF DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA. 
THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT GRADUALLY FROM WEST 
TO EAST BY THE MID MORNING HOURS AT THE LATEST...AS THE DRIER AIR 
MOVES INTO THE AREA. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP BRING QUIET 
WEATHER TO THE AREA TODAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY 
CANADA...RESULTING IN BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS. MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. 

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB 
TEMPERATURE FIELDS IN MODELS. A WARM AND NICE DAY OVERALL FOR LATE 
OCTOBER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND 
EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT...HELPING THE WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL 
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN MOST AREAS...THOUGH COULD GET A BIT 
COLDER IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA...WHERE POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS DIP A
BIT IN THE EVENING...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS THEN LIKELY
LATER IN THE NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BRING EVEN
MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70 FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LINGERED SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING PER THE SLOWER ECMWF...BUT STILL THINK TUESDAY MAY BE
MAINLY DRY BASED ON THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...WITH CURRENT MODELS INDICATING A PRETTY
CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS 
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING AT THE 
LATEST. MVFR FOG WILL LINGER AT TIMES AS WELL. 

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND 
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. 
BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN 
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF 
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM 15Z UNTIL 22Z TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND 
LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES WILL REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 
3 FOOT RANGE...HIGHER OVER THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TUESDAY 
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD 
FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV