FXUS63 KMKX 270726
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
226 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.
Northwest winds will usher in a reinforcing shot of cooler air,
beginning mainly in the afternoon. With that, will be an increase
in clouds after a sunny morning. We should still be able to get
into the mid 80s across far southern Wisconsin, upper 70s north of
Milwaukee and Madison.
A rather potent mid level short wave will pivot across the
Wisconsin this evening, possibly bringing a few rain showers to
the northeast portion of the forecast area from about 10 pm to 3
am tonight. Minor stuff with column moisture limited to around
.TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.
Models are in good agreement with high pressure sliding slowly
southeast across the region Tuesday into Wednesday. This should
result in quiet weather. Clouds should move out of the east
Tuesday morning. In addition, there may be more cumulus
development on Wednesday than currently forecast, as area forecast
soundings are showing very weak instability in the low levels.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected.
Temperatures look to remain below normal on Tuesday, with onshore
winds keeping 60s near Lake Michigan. Lower 70s seem reasonable
well inland, per 925 mb temperature fields from models. Warmer air
pushing into the area should bring highs closer to normal values
for Wednesday, with lake breeze keeping lakeshore areas cooler.
500 mb flow remains northwesterly Tuesday into Wednesday night
across the region. Some weak vorticity maxima should pass through
at times. GFS appears to be the only model with QPF near the
western counties Wednesday night. The others keep it further to
the northwest, closer to the advancing cold front. Kept low POPs
in the western counties Wednesday night for now, but dry look to
most models suggest that this could be removed in later forecasts.
.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.
GFS/ECMWF are in better agreement with the timing of the cold
frontal passage for Thursday into Thursday night. They bring it
southeast toward the area Thursday, then across the area Thursday
night. They differ somewhat with the placement of the 500 mb
vorticity maximum during this time, with the GFS having more of it
passing through the area Thursday night.
Still, it appears that late Thursday into Thursday night will
have the best shot at showers and thunderstorms with the front.
Continued POPs in the forecast for this period.
Northwest flow remains at 500 mb Friday into the upcoming holiday
weekend. High pressure slowly shifts southeastward into the area
during this time, which should bring quiet weather for most of
this period. Temperatures look to be near seasonal normals, with
lake breezes keeping lakeshore areas cooler in the afternoon
Cooler air arriving on northwest winds this afternoon should
bring a cloud deck with it. Cigs look to be around 3500-4500ft.
They should arrive at the TAF sites around mid afternoon, then
linger through late tonight, before exiting to the south Tuesday
Northwest winds will gust as high as 20 knots at times through
Tuesday, with lighter winds mid-week under high pressure. Waves
are expected to remain below 4 feet over the next few days.
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood