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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 271645 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE REALLY SLOW TO CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT PUTTING MORE STOCK IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGES RIGHT NOW WHICH WOULD INDICATE EARLIER
CLEARING. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN WHERE
THEY ARE AT THIS POINT DUE TO COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECTING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL 
THEN MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER TAF SITES LATE IN THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS 
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF 
AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE 
FOR SNOW NORTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE 
NORTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. 
THE NOSE OF AN UPSTREAM 130 KNOT JET MAX ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
PUSHES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THIS INCREASES THE 
UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT...BUT IT IS WEAK. 

A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING RESULTING 
IN MID LEVEL DRYING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LINGERING LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 5 THSD FT.  THE DRYING CONTINUES THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT A SHALLOW...MOIST LAYER REMAINS. 

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE HOW QUICK TO BRING IN CLEARING FROM 
THE WEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALSO SOME FLURRY POTENTIAL TIL MID MORNING. THE 
GFS MOS CLEARS THE SKIES...WHILE THE NAM MOS KEEPS IT CLOUDY.  WILL 
GO WITH A SLOWER CLEARING THAN THE GFS BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE 
NAM...WHICH OFTEN OVER DOES THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER.   
 
HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS LATER TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.  
THE MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY INITIALLY.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A GRADUAL 
SATURATION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE 
GROUND MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. 

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THERE 
WILL BE MAX THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN WI. 
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL DAY 
LONG. BY THE AFTERNOON... THE MID LEVELS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND 
DRY OUT WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND SOUTHERLY. 

IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN FRIDAY 
MORNING... ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. EVENTUALLY... EXPECTING 
LIGHT SNOW IN THAT AREA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE BEST 
FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH FOR THE AFTERNOON... SO I 
TAPERED OFF THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY 
EVENING... THERE MAY STILL BE JUST ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD SHEBOYGAN AS WE 
LOSE THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. OVERALL... I 
BACKED OFF ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. IT SHOULD BE TOO DRY.

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ALONG 
AND NORTH OF I-94 AND AROUND AN INCH OR MAYBE TWO TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION... MODELS ARE HINTING AT SLIGHTLY 
COOLER HIGHS ON FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE HAD IN THERE BEFORE. IT NOW 
LOOKS LIKE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 FOR A HIGH. THIS IS DUE TO OUR 
COLD START AND THE SNOW COVER AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO DRAW 
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL 
DROP A LITTLE IN THE EVENING BUT THEN RISE AND HOLD STEADY AROUND 30 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY... 
REACHING THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. SOUTHEAST WI COULD SEE MID 
40S. THE SNOW COVER AND PROBABLE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM MELTING 
SNOW COULD LIMIT OUR TEMPERATURES SO I KEPT THEM ON THE CONSERVATIVE 
SIDE.
 
THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WARMTH... SO WE WILL 
FINALLY GET INTO A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. 
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI... BUT 
THEY MAY BE PICKING UP ON MELTING SNOW AND FOG POTENTIAL OR POSSIBLY 
SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THAT SO I KEPT 
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. 

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE NIGHT 
AND SUNDAY... THEN DROP QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS 
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BRISK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COLD AIR 
ADVECTION. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY HIGH 
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ONTARIO OR LAKE SUPERIOR 
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY. AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF EAST 
CENTRAL WI TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST THAT WOULD HAVE 
MIXED PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 
ECWMF MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREAS. 
USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPS FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. 

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE SNOW WILL BE MOVING OUT BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING 
FLURRIES THROUGH MID MORNING.  EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS 
MORNING BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN EARLY 
THIS EVENING.  

CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.  SOME MVFR LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE 
GROUND MAINLY NORTHWEST OF MADISON TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO 
25 KNOTS...AND WAVES TO 4 FEET TOWARD OPEN WATERS. OVERALL 
THOUGH...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO BORDERLINE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC