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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 290249
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
949 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WI WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIVING SEWD AROUND
THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH THAT IS OVER SE CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO LOWER MI BY 12Z TUE. AN INCREASE IN 4-9 KFT
MOISTURE AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS IT APPROACHES EAST CENTRAL WI.
BELIEVE THEY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THOUGH BUT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SE WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. 

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SERN CANADIAN TROUGH
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY LATE TUE
AFTERNOON. AT LEAST A COUPLE WEAK SFC TROUGHS WILL EXIST OVER WI
INCLUDING OVER EAST CENTRAL OR SE WI FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.
MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 300 J/KG SO ONLY SOME
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. 

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM EARLY TUE AM
THROUGH TUE NT. SCT-BKN050-090 WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR TUE AFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ 

UPDATE...

MARINE AND BEACHES...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW WAVE
HEIGHTS HAS RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT. SWIM RISK IS NOW LOW. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO
EXPIRED. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. DOES 
SEEM THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR AT LEAST THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY SLOW TEMPS FROM 
COOLING VERY FAST AT FIRST.

RAISED POPS A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS MODELS IN BETTER 
AGREEMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A WEAK 
WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH DAYTIME 
HEATING AND INSTABILITY KICKING OFF THE SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS 
SHOWING UPWARDS OF 200-400 J/KG CAPE...SO KEPT THUNDER MENTION. 
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS A TAD MILDER THAN TODAY...THOUGH STILL A 
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST PLACES. 

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE 
TROUGH WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. WEAK SHORTWAVES 
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL 
LEAD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH 
DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...AROUND 100 TO 300 
J/KG... ON WEDNESDAY...THUS LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDER. HIGHER VALUES 
OF 700-900 J/KG CAPE ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE 
MORE DISTINCT AND AGREED UPON BETWEEN MODELS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD 
SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THUS THE BEST 
DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10C TO 12C AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND 19C 
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 
AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. 

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST LATER SATURDAY THROUGH 
SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT 
LESS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY 
LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON 
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE TO 14C 
AND 925MB TEMPS TO AROUND 22C BY MONDAY MORNING.
 
EVENTUALLY...THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI 
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY 
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SET 
UP ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE A 
DECENT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS 
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE 
WISCONSIN DELLS TO KENOSHA.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON NORTH AND 
EARLY EVENING SOUTH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE IN TO THIS 
EVENING...RESULTING IN SUBSIDING WAVES AS WELL.

BEACHES...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EVENING 
HOURS AS HIGHER WAVES LINGER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE IN TO THIS 
EVENING...RESULTING IN SUBSIDING WAVES AS WELL.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MRC