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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 160841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTH 
CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WARM 
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. 
INITIAL FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION/850 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE 
FIELDS BRINGING SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MORE 
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF 
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MOST MODELS ARE DRY THERE AS LOW LEVELS 
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO THIS 
MORNING. 

OTHERWISE...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD 
THROUGH THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY INTO 
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN 
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST TOWARD THE 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S 
INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. 

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA 
TONIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED AS WELL...IN FAVORABLE 
JET STREAK QUADRANT. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM Q 
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAIN ISSUE IS MOISTURE IN 
THE LOW LEVELS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS BRING LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE LOWEST QPF. 
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET THICK...WITH A 
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS. 

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE 
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S 
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WI THU MORNING WILL LIFT 
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL BE 
OVER CENTRAL WI AT 12Z THU MORNING AND LIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE 
SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST 
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO 
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL JUST BE SOME 
CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH BECAUSE PROFILES APPEAR VERY DRY IN THE MID 
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S 
MOST AREAS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE 
OVER THE PLAINS RIDING UP INTO IL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER 
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI THU 
NIGHT FOR NOW. 

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THU NIGHT INTO 
FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BACK 
DOOR COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR 
ANY PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING COLD ENOUGH TEMPS ALOFT TO GENERATE LAKE 
EFFECT EITHER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND 
DOES NOT BRING SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. WENT WITH THE 
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS BUT FAVORED THE COLDER MAJORITY 
OF THE MODELS. 

THE ECMWF IS ALSO FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH BRINGING THE WARMER 
AIR BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI AFTERNOON. STILL...WE COULD HIT 
50 IN MADISON BEFORE THE DAY ENDS IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AN 
EASTERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS COOL IN THE LOWER 40S AND 
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRI 
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA 
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER 
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL 
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE 
AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONGER 
SHORTWAVES THAN THE ECWMF AND THUS PRODUCES HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. 

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY RATHER 
THAN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE WILL 
SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN 
HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 60 FOR 
HIGHS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES 
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK 
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN 
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF TAF SITES DURING THIS 
TIME. MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN OCCUR BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS 
LOW SO LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF TAFS. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...LINGERING THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAY SEE BREAKS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE 
EASTERN SITES. 

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDLE 
MORNING...AND LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTS OF AROUND 30 
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON THIS AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A 
TIME TONIGHT AT MADISON...BUT LEFT OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS 
SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL LINGER.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE 
MICHIGAN FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR 
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE 
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. 
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL 
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND 
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE NEAR CREST...AND ARE 
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER 
RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER NEAR 
BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CRESTING. FOR 
THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS HAVE BEEN OR WILL 
BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT 
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC