Get Forecast For:
Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 011442 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS STILL QUITE WARM WITH
925 MB TEMPS...SO FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE. 

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...THOUGH MAYBE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD GIVEN A LITTLE MORE WIND/MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL BE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHERN THREE
MARINE ZONES UNTIL 1 PM TODAY GIVEN CURRENT WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR IMPROVED
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY
FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN...SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THIS ZONE STILL LOOKS GOOD. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. 

ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  THE 925MB TEMPS 
BUILD QUICKLY DURING THE DAY...MAXING OUT AROUND 25-26C BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. FULL SUN AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 800MB 
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S MOST PLACES AND EVEN SOME 
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.  THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEW POINTS 
AND THEREFORE HAS EXCESSIVE CAPE VALUES.  DEW POINTS COULD MIX OUT 
INTO THE MID 60S...INSTEAD OF MID 70S THE NAM SUGGESTS.  OTHER THAN 
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE COLUMN IS DRY...SO DON/T EXPECT AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS PERIOD. A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH 
SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE 
COUNTRY MID WEEK... INCLUDING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SHORTWAVE 
BEING ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MN 
TONIGHT AND THROUGH WI WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE PRIMED WITH WARM AND HUMID 
CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL 
HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT 
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF SHEAR AND A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE 
CONVERGENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE FORCING SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THU AFTERNOON... 
BUT MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE 
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE USUALLY DO NOT PAN OUT... BUT KEPT THE SLIGHT 
CHANCE IN THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT AND ANY SHORTWAVE TIMING CHANGES.

925MB TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 25-26C RANGE... BUT CLOUDS 
WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE MAX TEMPS. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY LATE IN THE WEEK AND REMAIN IN 
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A WARM 
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY 
LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH A LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND 
TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO 
SOUTHERN WI.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MORNING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SOME 
AREAS DUE TO A MOSTLY SHALLOW FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY 13Z THIS MORNING. THEN VFR CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...UNTIL MORE PATCHY FOG 
THREATENS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...TOWARD 10-13Z WED. WINDS WILL 
GENERALLY BE 10KTS OR LESS TODAY. 

MARINE...

DENSE FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE 
IN IT/S BEHAVIOR ISN/T VERY HIGH.  A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL 
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 AM...THEN 
JUST FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
AN UPWELLING EVENT LAST WEEK HAS BROUGHT COOL WATERS TO THE 
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES AND THIS IS COMBINING WITH THE HIGH DEW 
POINTS TO PRODUCE FOG. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ644>646.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC