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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 010944
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

OCASSIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF SRN 
WI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR ERN WI. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORTICITY 
MAXIMUM AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SNOW. THE 
STRATUS AND FLURRIES SHOULD MAKE IT TO LAKE MI BY 5 AM. INTERMITTENT 
VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MT MOVES TO THE UPPER MS RIVER 
VALLEY BY 00Z MON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN DRIVING A COLD FRONT 
ACROSS SRN WI THIS EVENING. THE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL 
CLEAR THE SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST 
AREAS.  

MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI MONDAY LEADING TO MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY 
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE 
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH AN 
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS 
BY MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH 
WI ON TUESDAY. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER 
TEMPERATURES CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT 
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO 
SOUTHERN WI ON TUESDAY AS WELL. 

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. THERE ARE STILL 
SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE WARM 
LAYER ALOFT. 

THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION... SO LESS CHANCE FOR 
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST WI. GIVEN THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOWING THAT WARM 
LAYER GETTING INTO SOUTHEAST WI FOR A SHORT TIME TUE AFTERNOON... I 
KEPT THE SNOW/SLEET MENTION THERE. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE RATHER LOW 
WHICH WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 4 
INCHES TOTAL... WITH MOST OF THAT FALLING DURING TUESDAY MORNING 
RUSH HOUR.
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUE EVENING AS THE SNOW 
ENDS. BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 
SINGLE DIGITS TUE NIGHT. 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THEN CALM 
DOWN AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE 
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPS SHOULD DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 
ZERO AGAIN WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER MILDER AIR BACK 
INTO WI ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE 
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FOG WILL DROP VSBYS 
MAINLY TO 3-5SM THIS AM. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 600 FEET TO 2500 FEET 
THIS AM...RISING TO 2000-3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES 
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING AFTER THE PASSAGE 
OF THE COLD FRONT. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC