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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 312042
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDY FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE 
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER 
MIDWEST. THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME OF 6 PM IS REASONABLE.

IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL 
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING... SO WIND CHILL TEMPS WILL BE 
IN THE 20S AND THEN DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS WILL 
BE AROUND -3C WITH A WEAK INVERSION YIELDING MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER 
TO MID 20S INLAND. CLOUDS OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL KEEP 
TEMPS MILDER THERE. 

LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN MULTIPLE SHORE-PARALLEL BANDS HAVE REMAINED 
JUST OFFSHORE OF RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES FOR MOST OF THE 
AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT 
WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS INLAND FROM MILWAUKEE 
SOUTH TO KENOSHA. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR WILL 
BE MIDNIGHT THROUGH 4 AM. 

1000-850MB WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST WITH MODERATE RH THROUGH 
MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH AND DRYING OUT. 
THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS INLAND OVER RACINE AND 
KENOSHA COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. MEANWHILE... 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO 
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. 
HOWEVER... 925MB TEMPS WILL BARELY RISE TO 0C... SO HIGHS WILL ONLY 
BE IN THE LOWER 40S. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD
STILL RADIATE OUT PRETTY HARD SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST. SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
MORE ELEVATED WEST.

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE QUIET. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. ALL THOSE LEAVES THAT MOVED SOUTH
TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTH ON SUNDAY...

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OVERALL...MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY. THE TROF APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY WEST OF MADISON. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING
IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THAT LOOKS
DUBIOUS GIVEN THE MOISTURE PROFILES.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THE TROF
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AND THE TROF SHOULD
BE EXITING THE EAST RIGHT AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WILL HANG ONTO A
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY GET TRIMMED OUT OVER
TIME AS THE MODELS APPEAR TO PICKING UP SPEED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THEY WERE RATHER SLOW ON THE PREVIOUS RUN. WON/T MAKE A DRASTIC
ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

A QUICK HITTING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL RACE THROUGH LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING A
SHOT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN. 

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. THE END OF THE
WEEK IS LOOKING COOLER...BUT NOTHING DRASTIC. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE 
EVENING... REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. DRIER AIR 
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. 
SKIES WILL CLEAR INLAND QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT 
AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH THROUGH RACINE 
AND KENOSHA. MVFR CEILINGS WITH ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ON 
GRASSY AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT RACINE AND KENOSHA. MKE HAS A GOOD 
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z TO 12Z AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE... 

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. GALES AND 
HIGH WAVES WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 
EVENING. 

WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THUS...A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED INTO SATURDAY EVENING AFTER THE 
GALE WARNING EXPIRES. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-052-059-060-
     065-066-070>072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS