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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS66 KPQR 250442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR 
941 PM PDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect periods of rain through midweek with decreasing
showers Thursday and Friday. Drier weather looks to return Saturday,
but is looking short lived with additional wet weather possible
Sunday or Monday.  


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Showers have decreased this
evening and are now mainly confined to the Cascades. Snow
accumulations are decreasing and have let the winter weather
advisory for the Cascades expire. The next front will bring another
round of rain and Cascade snow Tuesday. Rain will begin at the coast
Tuesday morning and make its way to the Willamette Valley in the
early afternoon. Snow levels should rise throughout the day and
should rise above 5500 feet in the afternoon. Rainfall totals of 0.25
to 0.5 inch are expected from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. A shortwave trough will enhance rain Tuesday night and
Wednesday with an additional 0.4 to 1.25 inch of rain.

The Portland forecast area will remain on the polar side of a strong
jet with moist onshore flow maintaining orographic showers Wednesday
night and Thursday. ~TJ

.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...Thursday night
through Monday...The strong jet aimed over the Pacific Northwest
during the middle of the week will slowly become more north-south
oriented and shift east of the region Thursday night and Friday. This
should result in decreasing showers during this period. Models are in
decent agreement that shortwave ridging will push over the Pacific
Northwest Friday night and Saturday and will bring some sunshine and
mild temperatures. This pleasant weather could last into Sunday, but
it could certainly be short lived based on the latest operational and
ensemble model guidance. As a result, trended PoPs into at least
mentionable thresholds and closer to climo for Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...Conditions have now improved to VFR for all locations
except for KPDX. Some MVFR ceilings will build in by early in the
morning before clearing out late morning/early afternoon. 

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Latest observation finally cleared PDX to
VFR. Conditions will remain there until early morning when MVFR
cigs are expected for a period before improving to VFR later in
the day. /Bentley


.MARINE...Active weather pattern continues as there is another 
system on Tuesday that will likely bring high-end small craft 
advisory wind and possibly brief low-end gales. Seas look to 
remain around 7 to 9 ft but may spike to 10-11 feet for a couple 
hours if winds overachieve much. Surface high pressure then 
begins to build offshore shunting the surface lows mainly north 
of the waters and keeping a relative lull in winds through 
Friday. Seas next reach 10-11 ft Thursday through early Friday as
the southern end of a swell train clips the northern waters from
a surface low crossing the Alaskan Panhandle. Bentley/JBonk


PZ...Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 3 AM to 
     7 AM PDT Tuesday.


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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.