000
FXUS63 KILX 112056
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CST THU MAR 11 2010
FORECAST PROBLEM OF TODAY IS THE CLOSED LOW SITTING AND SPINNING
OVER IA....STORM CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING...AND NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE IN NM THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO MIDWEST AND TRIGGERING
PROLONGED PCPN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN IA. MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED 850MB
MOISTURE AXIS NOW OVER IN...APPARENTLY CLEARED TO THE EAST WITH THE
DRY SLOT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING THE MORNING.
18Z SOUNDING AT ILX SHOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ABOUT 830MB...THEN
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE AND A WARM AIR CAP AT 700MB. APPEARS THAT THE
LIMITED OF CONVECTION TODAY CAUSED BY LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
THE 700MB CAP. ALSO SURFACE WIND PATTERN MISSING ANY CONVERGENCE
TRIGGER WITH DIFFUSE FRONT. STORM POTENTIAL HAS THEREFORE DROPPED
FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS LEFT FOR THE
EXTREME EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES HAVING PCPN POTENTIAL. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT...WRAPPING OF CLOUD MASS FROM MO INTO WESTERN AREA MAY
BRING SLIGHT RW- CHANCE AND SOME DRIZZLE LATE.
MORNING UPPER AIR...PROFILER DATA...SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SHORT
WAVE OVER NM THIS MORNING...MOVING THROUGH WEST TX IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH 100 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SYSTEM IS
PICKED UP BY ALL THREE MODELS...NEW NAM..GFS...AND EUR. THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON THE STATIONARY FRONT LEFT BEHIND BY TODAYS
SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE PRODUCED BY THE LOW AS IT ROTATES
NORTHWEST OVER CENTRAL IL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MODIFIED HPC QPF...BUT STILL FEEL GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE OVER WARNING AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
UPPER LOW FINALLY WOBBLES INTO OH VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING POPS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN STALLED OVER MIDWEST NOW INTO MID
ATLANTIC. IN THE LONG RANGE...GFS AND EUR MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN AGREEMENT. PATTERN IS QUITE FOR PERIOD...AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN SEMI BLOCKING PATTERN OVER US. HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS AND AFFECT IL THROUGH PERIOD. GFS DID SHOW
WEAK TORF ON TUES ROTATING SOUTH OVER REGION...BUT KEPT PATTERN DRY
AT THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY...TROUGH IN NORTHWEST BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
US WHICH MAY YIELD A LATE WEEK PATTERN CHANGE.
GOETSCH
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1143 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAS
ALLOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30KTS...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SW BY EVENING AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VSBYS IN TSRA...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL AND GUSTIER VRB
WINDS UP TO 40KTS WITHIN STRONGER CELLS. WITH EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS MENTION FOR NOW. ANY STORMS TO
CLEAR EASTERN TERMINALS BY 00Z. WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND CEILINGS
AROUND 2KFT AGL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
