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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KDTX 250354
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1154 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.AVIATION...

Will maintain a gradual thickening/lowering of cigs overnight into 
Tuesday as Atlantic moisture pivots back northwest into area around 
upper low to the south/southeast. Given extremely dry conditions in 
place...per 00z DTX sounding...would not expect lowest cigs to go 
much below the cusp of MVFR/VFR by Tuesday morning. Easterly 
winds...which have become somewhat gusty late this evening...should 
ease into Tuesday.

For DTW...Ceilings will approach 5kft in the 06z-08z period and 
most likely drop below 10z-20z as moisture backs northwest into 
area tonight. A general east/northeast flow will persist into 
Tuesday, but some veering to the southeast will occur after 18z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... 

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft overnight, high early 
  Tuesday morning into afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 

DISCUSSION...

Dry airmass remains in place (PW value of 0.27 inches per 12z DTX 
raob) leading to above average diurnal swing, as temperatures reach 
70+ degrees this afternoon away from Lake shadows. 

Large upper level low over the Southeast Conus will pull back some 
Atlantic moisture into the Central Great Lakes Tonight into Tuesday 
morning, with PW values approaching 1 inch. A weak upper wave and 
associated 6 hr pressure falls to move over southern Lower Michigan 
around 12z Tuesday, but still does not appear sufficient to generate 
showers, with SREF weighted probabilistic guidance still only 
indicating pops above 15 percent but under 30 percent, and 
preference will be to maintain dry forecast for majority of 
southeast Michigan, with just slight chance across the Thumb Region 
Tuesday morning. Moistening of the low levels and mid level clouds 
will level out our warming trend for a day, as maxes likely only 
peak near 70 degrees. 

Amplifying upper level trough west of the Mississippi River Valley 
as copious amount of upper level energy off the coast of the Pacific 
Northwest moves onshore. Surface low progged to move into Iowa and 
then into western Wisconsin on Wednesday, with thermal ridge axis 
over southeast Michigan, as 850 mb temps rise into the mid teens, 
with 700 mb temps up in the high single numbers. 12z NAM soundings 
showing very strong CAP (CINS in excess of 100 J/KG), and expecting 
a dry day with temperatures peaking out around 80 degrees as surface 
winds swing around to 180-200 degrees late in the day. If the cap 
does not hold for some reason, marginal risk of severe with MLcapes 
in excess of 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km of bulk shear of 40 knots or 
greater, especially if influence of Saginaw Bay comes into play and 
the warm front gets hung up near Tri-Cities region, which looks 
doubtful at the moment. 

Second low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains, 
lifting past St. Louis Wednesday evening, but system taking on 
negative tilt may prevent showers/thunderstorms from arriving until 
Thursday, supported by both the 12z Canadian/EURO and NAM solutions.

While discrepancies continue to exist regarding the track of 
Thursday's low, low pressure will likely drag a cold front behind it 
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, providing enough lift see 
rain showers and possibly thunderstorms along the front. Most places 
are expected to stay relatively dry through Friday morning and 
afternoon as temperatures remain more moderate with daytime highs in 
the mid to upper 60s. A warm front is then expected to push north 
into southern Michigan starting Friday afternoon into evening, which 
will bring the slight chance to see pop-up rain showers. 

This weekend looks to be a fairly active one as the advent of warmer 
air and a series of low pressure systems brings the likely chances 
for rain and possible chances for thunderstorms. A weak low pushing 
from MO/IA into the Lower Peninsula will bring the low chances for 
rain throughout Saturday. The better chance for rain will exist 
throughout Sunday as the low pushes northeast from ArkLaTex into the 
Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm chances will also be possible Sunday as 
the GFS and ECMWF runs place SE MI in the warm sector. Thunderstorm 
chances will continue into Monday as the low looks to drag a cold 
front through Michigan.

MARINE...

A long duration of moderate southeasterly flow will exist through 
Wednesday as the region remains between exiting high pressure and 
low pressue lifting into the Mid Mississippi Valley.  Sustained wind 
of 15 to 20 knots at times, but with a higher degree of stability 
under this pattern limiting the gust potential.  Winds turn 
southwesterly as low pressure lifts into great lakes on Thursday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...SF/AM
MARINE.......MR

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