000
FXUS62 KFFC 190838 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RATHER ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET EXTENDING ROUGHLY BETWEEN 25 AND
30 DEG LATITUDE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH
FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS TO OUR WEST
THIS MORNING AND WILL BUILD ACROSS GEORGIA TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
ALSO SLIDES CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES MILD
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY
WILL BUCKLE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN GENERATING A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY
WHICH MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY.
SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO GA
UNDERNEATH CONSIDERABLE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING H2 JET
STREAK. INSTABILITY MINIMAL (CAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG)
BUT WITH FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS EXPECT SOME THUNDER ON SUNDAY IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE
WEST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TYPICALLY AROUND A HALF INCH AND
POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING
SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FROPA EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS GA SUNDAY EVENING WITH
PRECIP WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW
LEVEL COLD POOL ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH A BLOB OF H8 TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -7 DEG C RANGE CROSSING THE
AREA TN AND NRN AL/GA MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY STRATO
CU/SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LIKELY ON MONDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES/WET
BULBS PROBABLY JUST A TAD TOO HIGH FOR ANYTHING BUT COLD
RAIN AT THE SURFACE IN MOST AREAS...BUT GFS THERMAL PROFILES AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS LOOK SUPPORTIVE
OF A A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000-3500 FEET. PLAN TO
KEEP ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS AS THE
NAM/SREF SHOULD COME INTO FOCUS ON THIS BETTER THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDING TO OUR EAST
REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
WILL LEAD TO A MID-WEEK RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. AFTER
AFTER RIDGE AXIS PASSES...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE
FEW MID CLOUDS NEAR TOP OF MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT
LIKELY. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST 4-8KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 43 76 51 64 / 0 0 5 10 80
ATLANTA 70 47 73 51 63 / 0 0 5 20 80
BLAIRSVILLE 68 39 67 47 59 / 0 0 5 20 80
CARTERSVILLE 71 39 73 49 62 / 0 0 5 30 80
COLUMBUS 73 44 74 52 65 / 0 0 5 30 80
GAINESVILLE 72 46 72 52 61 / 0 0 5 20 80
MACON 75 42 74 50 67 / 0 0 5 10 80
ROME 72 40 72 49 62 / 0 0 5 30 80
PEACHTREE CITY 71 39 73 48 64 / 0 0 5 20 80
VIDALIA 75 48 77 54 71 / 0 0 5 10 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
