000
FXUS61 KBOX 070539
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND. HANNA WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING...AS
WELL AS A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WARM...DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE RI AND MA COASTAL REGIONS
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS A LINE FROM BDL TO ORH TO LWM.
IN THIS AREA AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING
IS IN EFFECT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
/BOSHLSBOX/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
THE STORM CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA DURING THE 05Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
HANNA IS ALREADY CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE AREA. LATEST NAM
AND GFS INDICATE THAT HEAVIEST RAIN WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY
OCCUR IN WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAINS THAT
FELL EARLIER TODAY IN SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...TOTAL WEEKEND RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES. SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES.
TROPICAL SYSTEMS SOMETIMES PRODUCE THEM ON THEIR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STORM WHERE SHEAR VALUES BECOME QUITE HIGH. BASED ON
OUR CURRENT TRACK...THE RISK FOR THIS WOULD BE THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HANNA PULLS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THEN DRY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. DECREASING
CLOUDS EXPECTED WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME LOOKING AT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BLEND OF 06/12Z GFS AND 06/00Z
ECMWF. DID SEE THIS TIMING IS DIFFERENT FROM HPC FORECAST...SO WILL
LIKELY CHANGE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ONCE WE ARE THROUGH WITH
TROPICAL STORM HANNA.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL...
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
LOW PRESSURE PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY...MORE AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FAR OUT...TIMING
IS DEFINITELY A QUESTION.
SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING
IS A AGAIN A CONCERN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR 09Z-12Z AS HANNA TRACKS
OFF E MA COAST NEAR PLYMOUTH...THEN TO VFR BY 15Z AS LOW CLOUDS SCOUR
OUT.
CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS HEADING OFF CAPE COD AS OF 0530Z AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS HANNA TRACKS ACROSS RI AND SE MA THROUGH 09Z. WINDS
SHIFT TO N BEHIND STORM WITH 30KT GUSTS LIKELY...THEN GRADIENT WILL
MAINTAIN 25KT GUSTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH W WINDS 10KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THEN MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING
THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND
RI...INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT GUSTS APPROACHING 60 KTS SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI
INCLUDING NARRAGANSETT BAY.
SEAS OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF MONTAUK TO NANTUCKET...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ON THE
WATERS NEAR/EAST OF STELLWAGEN BANK.
SUNDAY...WILL START OFF WITH GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA /25 KT/ BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS....WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG WHERE LATEST
NERFC FORECAST BRINGS RIVER JUST OVER ITS 6.5 FT FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OTHER SMALLER RIVERS HAVE SHOWN SHARP RISES DUE TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT
URBAN FLOODING. WE ANTICIPATE THESE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOOD WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS WELL SINCE RENEWED FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 135 AM...HIGH TIDE WAS OCCURRING ALONG S COAST WITH A SURGE OF
1 TO 1.5 FEET PER TIDE GAGES AT PROVIDENCE AND NEWPORT. THIS HAS
ACTUALLY DROPPED SINCE 11 PM WHEN WE SAW A 2 FOOT SURGE. THIS WAS
LARGELY DRIVEN BY STRONG S WINDS WHICH HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH
APPROACH OF HANNA.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST WHERE 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 FEET OF STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED.
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE AS FOLLOWS...
BOSTON 516 AM SUNDAY
NANTUCKET 633 AM SUNDAY
NEWPORT 127 AM SUNDAY
PROVIDENCE 140 AM SUNDAY
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>024-
026.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019>024.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ005-006-012>014-017-018.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-
015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>008.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RIZ002-004>008.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001-003.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...BELK/NMB
HYDROLOGY...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD
