000
FXUS61 KCLE 172345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
BY EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER AND A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PARADE OF SHORT WAVES MARCHING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST IS
CROSSING LAKE ERIE. COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-71 MOVING EAST
AT ABOUT 20 MPH AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 7 PM.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY EAST OF I-71...AS SHORT WAVE DROPS SE. DRIER AIR
IS MIXING IN BUT DAYTIME HEATING IS NEAR MAXIMUM. NICE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT H8 COMBINED WITH POOLING DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND LOWER MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CLIP NE OH/NW PA LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT SHORT WAVE IS NEAR GREEN BAY AND IS TIMED
ACROSS LAKE ERIE ABOUT 03Z. SHOWERS/TSTORMS ASSOCD WITH THAT WAVE
SHOULD BE DECREASING AS DARKNESS SETTLES IN AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORT WAVE BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
SURVIVE TO CLIP NE OH/NW PA. PROBABLY BEST NOT TO TIME THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK EARLY TONIGHT. STRONGER OF THE SHORT WAVES IS DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH DEEPENS ON SUNDAY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST. WITH COLD POOL ALOFT
AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE SELF
DESTRUCTIVE AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. A SMALL CHANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SO PERHAPS LESS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITHIN 5 TO 10 MILES OF LAKE ERIE EAST OF SANDUSKY.
AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SO THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR AFTERNOON OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AN IDEAL SPRING DAY AS TEMPS HOLD
IN THE 50S AND A COOL BREEZE. IF IT WERE TO BE OVERCAST WITH MORE
FREQUENT SHOWERS TEMPS COULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA MAY BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THAT. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE ENOUGH
DRY WEATHER TO SNEAK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PERHAPS COMBINED WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION ON TUESDAY. NOT SURE OF
EXACT TRACK OR INTENSITY AT THIS POINT AND WILL FORECAST A
GENERIC CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY TUESDAY.
COULD STILL BE A COOL DAY IF IT TURNS SHOWERY BUT WITH SOME WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING MAX TEMPS COULD BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES
WARMER IF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LATER OR MINIMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE QUIET. MODELS CONTINUE
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. 12Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO OLD
ECMWF WITH SURFACE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WELL OFF TO THE SW DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT BIG WARM UP
ADVERTISED EARLIER WILL ALSO BE PUT ON HOLD. WITH COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW MOST OF THE PERIOD TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR NEXT SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES JUST TO THE EAST. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR FORECAST AS PATTERN LOOKS
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOT GOING ON DURING A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. MAIN COLD FRONT NOW
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS CROSSING THE LAKE AND MOVING INTO NW PA
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX. THESE WILL CONTINUE EAST AND ONLY
AFFECT ERI FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. LOOKING UPSTREAM...NEXT VORT
MOVING ACROSS THUMB OF MI. THESE ARE ALL QUICK MOVING AND THIS
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD MAKE IT TO ERI THIS
EVENING YET...CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THEN FURTHER UPSTREAM...AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND MAIN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES ACROSS ONTARIO...IS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARD
MORNING. A FINAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THIS WILL YIELD MAINLY VFR WEATHER...WITH MVFR IN BETTER SHOWERS
AND WINDS THAT WILL PRIMARILY SHIFT BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST.
THUNDER CHANCES SLIM TO NONE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...BUT SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ENHANCED ENOUGH BY DAYTIME
HEATING TO HAVE SOME THUNDER...PRIMARILY FROM ERI TO CAK AND
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE. HAVE INCLUDED CB FOR NOW AT
YNG/ERI. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD REALLY DIE DOWN QUICK.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STICKS AROUND IN CYCLONIC FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR ERI. COUPLE MORE
DISTURBANCES DROP DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST MON/TUE. PATTERN
BEGINS TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE TRYING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD BE EAST OF FORECAST
AREA BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TO SPLIT THE LAKE UP TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FRONTAL LOCATION. HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME GOOD GUSTINESS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER THE BIG PUSH OF
DRIER AIR HAS ENDED. THIS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND SUNSET.
UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS TO COME DOWN RATHER
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN THAT WAY MOST OF THE NIGHT. NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE S OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME NW AND INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERAL W TO NW FLOW ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
INTO MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME SW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK IMPULSE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER NW FLOW WILL GET REESTABLISHED TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSF/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS/KUBINA
