000
FXUS65 KLKN 112135
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO UTAH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE REPLACED BY MILD AND DRY WEATHER
BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW CENTER SLOWLY PUSHES
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE MTNS...MAINLY RUBIES
EASTWARD OVER ELKO COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN NV THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BRIEFLY
STALLING OVER UTAH. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 32
THROUGH 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE MOST
AREAS IN ELKO COUNTY...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHEASTERN PART OF
NVZ031. THIS MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AS DYNAMICS FAIRLY WEAK
OTHERWISE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA MONDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WARMING 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND THEN NEAR NORMAL READINGS ON TUESDAY.
HARMER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
STARTS OFF THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN GFS AND DOESN`T BRING THIS FEATURE
THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON WEATHER. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE TO BE OVER REGION ON THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT NEXT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH HEADING FOR THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE TROUGH COMING
ONSHORE AND BRINGING SOME PRECIP TO NW NV ON SATURDAY. ECMWF DOESN`T
BRING TROUGH ONSHORE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIP HOLDING
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO AGREE WITH THE ECMWF ON THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND KEEP
FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MCGEE
&&
.AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
KBAM TO KELY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT...ISOLATED
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITY AND LOWERING CEILINGS INTERMITTENTLY
AS LOW AS IFR CATEGORY AT KELY AND POSSIBLY KEKO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NV SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CIGS/VSBYS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW VFR AT ANY TAF SITES. STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING TO 35
MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KTPH THROUGH JUST AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. MCGEE
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ZONE 32 THROUGH 5 AM PDT SUNDAY.
$$
