000
FXUS64 KEPZ 171957
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
157 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW..RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AS THE STORM SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE
AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR DATA INDICATES A SMALL LINE OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE FAST MOVING WITH LIGHT RAIN FALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
THESE STORMS ARE PART OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW THAT HAS NOW MOVED INTO WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD END THIS EVENING.
AFTERWORDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST BY TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AND
THEN WARM WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLAND DESERTS. WITH THE
EXTRA HEATING AFTERNOON...BUILD UPS OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MINIMAL MOISTURE AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE LIGHT BREEZY
CATEGORY IN THE AFTERNOONS BUT OVERALL WIND PATTERNS WILL REMAIN
MILD.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS THAT
WILL BE AIDED BY TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
STATE. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND
BEYOND MODELS BECOME LESS CERTAIN WITH A LOT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY IN THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. THERE COULD
BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT CONTINUE INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO RECENT RAIN
AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. WARMING/DRYING EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING A LIKELY RETURN OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
GILA AND LINCOLN NATL FOREST AREAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BUT WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE STORM SYSTEM CAN TAP AS
WELL AS ITS EVENTUAL TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 56 88 67 97 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 52 84 61 94 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 55 88 64 97 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 54 88 62 96 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 65 45 74 48 / 10 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 88 60 96 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 82 54 89 54 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEMING 54 88 61 97 62 / 10 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 90 61 96 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/15
