000
FXUS64 KHGX 240003
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
703 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UNCHANGED VERY MOIST LOWER FEW THOUSAND FOOT LAYER WILL HAVE
AREAWIDE IFR CEILINGS (ISOLATED LIFR) FORMING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HZ/BR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...LOCALLY UNDER A MILE OVER MORE RURAL HUBS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM 13Z THROUGH 17Z...EAST-VEERING-
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON BREEZE WITH A THICKER HIGH OVERCAST
FROM ANTICIPATED WESTERN TX THUNDERSTORM (ANVIL) CI BLOW-OFF. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTN BUT RELUCTANT TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BE REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF MAINLY AFTN/
EARLY EVENING PCPN THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING COUPLED
WITH SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST AND THIS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS
SETTLED OVER THE REGION BEING THE MAIN FACTORS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OR SO. AT THAT TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO DIFFER. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER (BUT STRONGER) WITH THIS
NEXT UPPER TROF THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT WEDS/THURS. ATTM...OPTING TO
KEEP WITH GFS AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER OF LATE. 41
&&
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TOWARDS THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARDS. LOW PRESSURE IN WEST TEXAS
THOUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TIDES LATE NEXT WEEK. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 90 70 90 69 / 20 20 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 71 89 71 / 20 20 10 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 83 73 84 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
