000
FXUS62 KMLB 171835
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
235 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.DISCUSSION...
...SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPED INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT AS NORTH FLOW BEHIND IT HAS EASED TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...A RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
AS THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SPARSE...I THINK AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE
TO THE DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG
PROBLEMS BUT EXPECT AREAS OF LATE NIGHT STRATUS AGAIN.
SUN...BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IS
STILL PROJECTED. THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF WHILE
GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL INCREASE WEST/SOUTHWEST
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SO THERE WILL NOT BE A SEA
BREEZE...BUT WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOR A SCATTERING OF CONVECTION. HAVE NOT CHANGED
PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH WHICH GENERALLY HAS 30 POPS IN THE NORTH
HALF AND 20 IN THE SOUTH.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...BASE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES FROM EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUN NIGHT-MON FLATTENS LATE MON NIGHT AND
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE PENINSULA. LIMITED MAV MOS POP FOR SUN NIGHT
-EARLY MON NIGHT TO 30 MAX GIVEN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE
AREA BY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS 500MB
VORT MAX AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DIVERGENCE OF 100 KNOT PLUS JET MAX
MOVE ACROSS AND DOWN THE PENINSULA MON MON NIGHT.
...PREVIOUS DAY 4-7...
TUE-FRI...BROAD EAST COAST CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINS TO LOSE AMPLITUDE
TUE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN GULF MID WEEK
AND EVOLVING TO ANTICYCLONE OVER NW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT A RETURN TO DRY WX WITH
PERSISTENT W/SW SURFACE FLOW AS RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO LESSEN AND VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. TEMPS AVERAGING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAXS GENERALLY LOWER-MID 90S AND MINS CLOSE TO 70.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET THEN LATE NIGHT STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN
SITES PROBABLY DROPPING TO IFR. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BE LIGHT
ENOUGH IN THE SOUTH FOR SOME 3-5SM BR. DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW
SHOULD GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-
CANAVERAL AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT-SUNDAY...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND/SEA
PROBLEMS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS NEAR SHORE
AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WELL OFFSHORE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE AN
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT-THU...OFFSHORE FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUN NIGHT AS GRADIENT
BETWEEN WEAKENING FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA PUSHES AGAINST THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAIT.
FLOW REMAINS OFFSHORE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS RIDGE AXIS STAYS SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUN-SUN NIGHT...CONTINUED MOISTENING INDICATED WITH
MIN RH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40 PERCENT. A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND CLOUDS TO KEEP THE
CHANCES FOR FOG LOW AT NIGHT...SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED NOW THAT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND SOME
RAIN WETTING WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY.
MON-THU...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP MINIMUM RH/S IN
THE 40S OR HIGHER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP VALIANT THO` SINCE SOIL
MOISTURE AND FUELS ARE STILL DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 89 69 90 / 10 30 20 30
MCO 70 91 70 90 / 10 30 20 30
MLB 71 91 69 89 / 10 30 20 30
VRB 72 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER
