000
FXUS63 KDVN 281945
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN END TO
THE RECENT RAIN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COLD POOL/CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS PUT A DAMPER ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME SHRA HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROF WHICH IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE THE COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE
SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP THIS EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN IS FOG. A NICE STRIPE OF HEAVY RAIN RUNS FROM BENTON
COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO MCDONOUGH COUNTY. CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS. THEREFORE WILL ADD MENTION OF FOG FOR THAT AREA.
QUIET WX EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. ...08...
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
QUIET LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING SURFACE HIGH THROUGH
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ABOUT THE ONLY QUESTION REGARDING THE
WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS
SATURDAY. GFS/NAM ARE FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE CWFA BY 12Z SATURDAY SUGGESTING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MINS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AROUND A CATEGORY. LOW TO
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE HELD TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...BUT LOW 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BASED
ON H8 TEMPS. GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO LAG THE
GFS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FROPA WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING SO HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO MOVE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV
INTO THE THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL OR WRN
GULF...SO HAVE HELD ON TO LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY. ...DLF...
&&
.AVIATION...
CFP TO OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CIGS OF 2-3KFT SHOULD BE SEEN
THROUGH 03Z. CLOUDS HELPING TO INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND KDBQ
SHOULD REMAIN TSRA FREE. KCID MAY SEE A CB WITHIN SIGHT OF THE FIELD
BUT CFP SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE IT WOULD GET CLOSE. KBRL HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING A TSRA WITH KMLI NEXT BEST. CIGS TO BECOME VFR
AFTER 03Z. KCID/KBRL HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FG LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE GONE WITH 1SM 10-14Z. POTENTIAL THERE FOR BLO 1SM AND CIGS BLO
1KFT AROUND SUNRISE. KDBQ/KMLI SHOULD SEE 3-5SM VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE.
...08...
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
