000
FXUS64 KFWD 180009 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS WHICH HAD BEEN
SINKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES. A SHOWER MAY
BRIEFLY AFFECT WACO BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z
IN THE METROPLEX...AND 15-17Z AT WACO. #58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008/
DISCUSSION...
A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY EJECT EAST ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO
NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS STILL SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FATE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW SUGGESTING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO NORTHERN BAJA DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 90 66 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 59 90 64 94 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 60 86 63 91 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENTON, TX 59 89 63 93 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 59 88 62 92 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
DALLAS, TX 64 89 69 94 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 58 89 64 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 58 88 64 92 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 58 89 63 93 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/75/58
