000
FXUS66 KSGX 272027
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND A BETTER CHANCE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER AND COASTAL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE BUT BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE THROUGH SATURDAY. FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE CUMULUS ARE STRUGGLING TO GROW OVER THE MTNS
OF OUR REGION WHILE HAVING BETTER LUCK SOUTH OF THE BORDER. WE WILL
CONTINUE ON THE FRINGES OF MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH THU WITH A
SIMILAR SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MARINE LAYER HAS
TEMPORARILY ASSERTED ITSELF...BUT WE EXPECT IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
SHALLOW TONIGHT AND THU. ON FRI THE EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND DRAWS
MORE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ON SAT THE FLOW SLOWS DOWN
BUT THE MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THAT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON TSTORMS THOSE DAYS. MAYBE EVEN A SHOWER OR TWO WEST OF THE
MTNS COULD OCCUR AND ALSO POSSIBLY DURING FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TEASING US WITH THIS IDEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NOW...ALWAYS POSTPONING THAT SOLUTION. FOR NOW WE WILL NOT FOLLOW
IT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE BUT IN A MORE SHALLOW AND
DISRUPTED STATE. ON SUN A PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND PUSHES EAST ALL THE MONSOON MOISTURE. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE MARINE LAYER BY PROBABLY SPINNING UP A COASTAL
EDDY. THE UPPER HIGH QUICKLY MOVES THE TROUGH EASTWARD ON MON AND
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOME EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A
RATHER STRONG HIGH THAT WOULD INDICATE A VERY HOT PERIOD...BUT OTHER
RUNS AND MODELS SHOW MORE OF THE SAME PATTERN. WEAK TROUGHS IN A
VIGOROUS PACIFIC NORTHWEST JET STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE DOMINANT
RIDGE...AND LITTLE IF ANY MONSOON INFLUENCE. IN SHORT...WEATHER MORE
LIKE EARLY SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
271900Z...
MARINE STRATUS CLINGING TO SOME BEACHES AT 19Z. EXPECT IT WILL
QUICKLY REFORM ALONG THE COAST AFTER SUNSET AND AFFECT KCRQ AND KSAN
BEFORE 04Z THIS EVENING. THEN SLOWLY SPREAD 15 TO 20 MILES INLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH BASES NEAR FL013 AND TOPS NEAR FL018. STRATUS/FOG NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KONT...BUT HAZE/FOG WILL DEVELOP IN MANY VALLEYS
AND ON THE MESAS AFTER 08Z WITH 3-5SM VIS RESTRICTIONS. VIS WILL BE
LOCALLY LOWER BTWN 10Z AND 14Z THU ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS LAYER.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...A FEW CU POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BASES NEAR FL120...ALONG WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED CB OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD
