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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 200227
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE REACHES MINNESOTA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS COULD DECREASE ACROSS NW OH FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
SOME MAINLY THICK CIRRUS IS ABOVE THAT...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST TO
CLOUDY EAST WILL WORK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF LOSING THE LOW CLOUDS BRIEFLY OVER NW OH THAT COULD
CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND THEN RECOVER WHEN THE CLOUDS
THICKEN. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BELOW THE
INVERSION HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TOUGH TO READ THE
BREAKUP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KERI SHOW SOME DRYING UNDER THE INVERSION
DURING THE NIGHT HINTING AT BREAKS POSSIBLY CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. NOT CLEAR CUT BUT FOR NOW WILL SKY COVER IN THE UPPER 60
AND 70% RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 85%
COVERAGE OR ABOVE. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP ATTM. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. NAM SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING SUNDAY AS THE AXIS FAR
ENOUGH EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE MIXING. NEXT REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS. MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE NAM A TOUCH MORE MOIST. WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW WILL
MOVE TO ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE INCREASING CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
ASSOCIATED APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF NORMAL
SATURDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STORM NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MAIN TROUGH HANGING BACK SO FAR TO THE WEST WITH 
THE 12Z RUNS TODAY THERE IS LESS INDICATION OF A SECONDARY COASTAL 
LOW DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND EURO HAVE 
SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES. HAVE USED THE EURO GUIDANCE ALONG 
WITH WPC WHICH HAS THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR AND CHANGE 
OVER TO SNOW. RATHER MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY 
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR SWEEPS IN ON 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. USING THE EURO TIMING FOR 
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z WED AND 00Z THU 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO COOL TOWARD 
FREEZING CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE LOW CENTER LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH 
ACROSS LAKE HURON. SOME WRAP AROUND SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED 
CHRISTMAS WITH ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE 
LAKESHORE FROM ASHTABULA TO ERI.

THIS PATTERN QUICKLY CHANGES AND RELAXES BY FRIDAY AS A SOMEWHAT 
ZONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING TROUGH 
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF 
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE 
EURO. HAVE USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EURO FOR FRIDAY AND 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH STUBBORN STRATUS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CEILINGS ON
EITHER SIDE OF 2K FEET. ONLY SITE WITH POSSIBLE IFR APPEARS TO BE
MFD OVERNIGHT. SOME SITES MAY BREAK INTO VFR TERRITORY
LATE...SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT
THAT...NOT GREAT CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE YET. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST. NON-VFR RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY AND STICKS
AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST AT 
19/20Z. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...KEEPING THE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK 
SIDE OF THE HIGH...FUNNELING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
ACROSS MINNESOTA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL SLOWLY 
WRAP UP ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND BECOME CUT 
OFF...WHICH WILL DELAY ITS ARRIVAL ON STATION BY UP TO A DAY. BY 12Z 
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW 
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A MUCH 
MORE ELONGATED INNER CLOSED ISOBAR LOCATED GENERALLY ACROSS THE OHIO 
VALLEY. OF COURSE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE 
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED ACROSS THE LAKE...SO THIS PART OF THE 
FORECAST WILL NEED MUCH FINE TUNING. ONCE THE MODELS PUSH THE LOW 
OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA AND INTO MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY INTO 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA BY 25/18Z...GALES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON THE 
LAKE. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST 
AREA...AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MAYERS