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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 010159
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over western Kentucky will slowly lift north into lower
Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area Monday.
Large area of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes Monday
and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest HRRR model trying to match itself with reality with patches
of rain occurring through the night. Some locations may get hit
with a stray shower passing through while others like northwest
Pennsylvania and extreme northeast Ohio will get caught under the
large batch of showers moving north across western Pennsylvania
late in the overnight hours. Another area will move northwest into
the western portions of the area. So, this makes pinpointing the
forecast rather difficult so I tried to highlight the best
locations where rain will occur overnight. Will keep mention of
isolated thunderstorms because just about any where in the area
could see a stray cell or two produce some thunder. Otherwise,
temperatures are not going too far with all of the clouds and
showers around at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models coming into a little better agreement on the track and timing
of the low.   But again...today the models are a little slower
ejecting the low than they were yesterday.   The upper level low
drifts north into Lower Michigan by Saturday evening.   Both the
upper level and surface low linger over the Central Lakes Sunday.
Best focus will be over the Central Lakes into the primary snowbelt
area.  High pressure finally starts to eject the low on Monday. Left
chance pops going in the east because models still may be a tad fast
with the low...and potential for some lake enhanced showers off the
lake with 850mb temps around 8c.   Very little change in the temps
through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models are in reasonably good agreement with the upper low
finally sliding off the east coast later Monday/Monday night.
There is still a hint of low pressure aloft left behind as the rex
block forms over the Great Lakes but let us assume that there will be
enough high pressure and subsidence given the time of year that dry
weather will prevail through mid week. 

Not very confident about the timing of next cold front. It will
likely have to wait for the tropical system going up the east coast
unless a weakening front sneaks through quick enough as suggested
by the ECMWF. Will mention a small chance of showers Thursday for
northwest Ohio and keep a small chance of showers Friday given the 
uncertainty. 

Temperatures should rebound nicely as the ridge builds aloft with
highs in the 70s. It will get cooler later in the week but not very
confident on the forecast temps until we figure out the timing of the
next front and the amount of clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Upper level low pressure system will continue to spin over the area
with occasional showers. Showers have been decreasing in coverage
but will continue at times through Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms will also be possible but not enough coverage to
include in any of the TAFs. MVFR ceilings are filling in with
periods of IFR developing overnight, especially in the 06-13Z.
The low will gradually start to shift north on Saturday with
easterly winds shifting around to the south. Ceilings will improve
through the day Saturday and be VFR most areas by 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The east winds will gradually relax and as the persistent low
pressure area over the Ohio Valley weakens and drifts back toward the
Great Lakes this weekend but the wind and waves will remain high
enough to keep the small craft advisory posted into tonight. The flow
will veer more from the south over the weekend and then veer
northwest on Monday as the low moves east. 

High pressure will build in Monday and Tuesday. The center of the
surface high over eastern Canada will result in winds veering all the
way northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday so the west half of the
lake could get a bit choppy.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kosarik