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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 180113
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST 
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON 
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE 
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE 
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW 
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD 
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL 
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER 
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF 
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND 
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST 
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC 
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH 
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO 
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY 
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE 
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE 
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL 
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND 
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE. 

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO 
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO 
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S. 

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO 
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON 
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY 
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE 
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL 
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING 
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN 
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES 
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH 
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL 
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS 
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES 
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO 
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM 
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NW
PA ON FRIDAY IS LIMITED. ONLY PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
TAFS AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 12 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME 
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST 
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR. 
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF 
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT 
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE 
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE 
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL 
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE 
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS