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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 021918
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A 
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY 
A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. WARM AIR MASS 
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST AND 
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET UP A DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS NORTHEAST UP THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAIN CHAIN. 

EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO 
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND EXIT THE REGION BY POST TIME. 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE WEST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO FEISTY 
AS WELL. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT GREAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND IS 
CONFINED TO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF AT 
LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE 
EVENING WITH RAPID DRYING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE 
REGION THIS EVENING. 

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS 
MORNINGS LOWS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT 
SETTING UP A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH 
WILL BUILD NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME ON THURSDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD SURGE 
OF WARM AIR RACING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM 16C WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 20C BY FRIDAY. 
INCREASED DEW POINT AIR WILL RETURN AND BRING WITH IT HIGHER 
HUMIDITIES ON FRIDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY 
EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD 
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD 
UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE COLD FRONT 
FRIDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO IDEAL TIMING IN THE HEAT OF THE 
DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE AREA AT DAYBREAK 
SATURDAY.  THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT 
BUT RAPID DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.  READINGS NEXT 
WEEKEND WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY 
GETTING INTO THE 40S.  SUNDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT 
SUNSHINE.  THE FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.  THE 
SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE QUIET WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE 
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 
RETURN.  EXPECT TEMPS TUESDAY TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.  PRECIP 
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL JUST AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS ARE MAKING THERE WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FIRST LINE IS MOVING INTO NW PA AND THE SECOND IS OVER NW
OHIO. NO THUNDER YET BUT SOME COULD OCCUR AS THE SECOND LIKE MOVES
INTO NE OHIO. WILL GIVE ALL OF THE TAF SITES A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO
TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE SECOND LINE IS
RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT CIGS TO DIP TO MVFR
FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE FROPA. AFTER THAT CIGS SHOULD BREAK
UP LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST 3/4 OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z EVEN IN NW PA. STILL EXPECTING
SOME MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. S TO SW FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THEN DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK.  

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE BY EARLY THIS 
EVENING.  LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALSO BE GONE BY THAT 
TIME.  EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  LIGHT FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE 
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE 
RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE LAKE.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN 
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS 
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY.  MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT WITH 
THE FLOW BECOMING NORTH BEHIND IT.  DO NOT THINK SPEEDS WILL BE 
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  SPEEDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL 
BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA