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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 050124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
924 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER 
CENTRAL OHIO AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL 
THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL 
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS OHIO HAS BUMPED DEW POINT INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...SO LEFT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
OVERNIGHT FORECAST. DONT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH DROP IN TEMPS
SO TWEAKED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES..

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR AHEAD 
OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS HELPING TO REDUCE THE SHOWER POTENTIAL 
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDED THE CONVECTIVE 
TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS 
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN 
INCH OR LESS THIS EVENING.  THE FRONT EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO STALL 
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MORNING. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY 
OF THE FRONT TO THE AREA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS 
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE 
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE 50S 
FOR LOWS NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL TAKE THEIR 
TIME IN GETTING INTO THE COLDER AIR...LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 
60 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA 
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF 
LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS WILL CAUSE COLD AIR ADVECTION 
OFF THE LAKE AS COLD DOME OF AIR MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL 
LIKELY BE COOLER IN TOLEDO AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FOR 
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT 
COLD SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND 
MIDDLE 70S. LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND 
THIS WILL KEEP THE LAKE SHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL.

AS STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA...THREAT FOR SOME 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. 
SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. FINALLY...FRONT BEGINS 
TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE A 
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
AREA. ALTHOUGH...GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY 
DEVELOP AGAIN KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SHORE.

THE BEST SURGE OF WARM AIR TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW 
RESUMES IN THE WARM SECTOR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE 
ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WARM FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD 
SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THREATS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMIZED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
NIGHT AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS IN FRIDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO 
PA WITH A TROF MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE 
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT 
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MILD/WARM 
PATTERN FOR NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW OUT OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE AREA.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FLOW LOOKS BEST ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY SO WILL PUT A SLIGHT 
CHANCE IN THE GRIDS.  MESOSCALE FORCING COULD HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING 
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG ANY LAKE BREEZE BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT. NO 
BIG CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO MICHIGAN. MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE 
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST.  WOULD EXPECT MORE 
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE 
CHANCE POPS FOR ALL.  MANUAL PROGS HAVE THE FRONT BECOMING MORE 
EAST/WEST AND STALLING JUST TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FRONT LIFTS A BIT NORTH FOR 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ENE. WILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE 
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE 
INCREASING DIURNAL ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS EXITING TO THE
EAST. COLD FRONT JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN MI WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD OVER NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL. A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYTIME OVERNIGHT...BUT A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BATCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN TAF SITES ABOUT 12Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHOWERS TUESDAY. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND
FOR NOW HAVE MATCHED THEM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS SHOW A WEAK GRADIENT IN GENERAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO 
AM EXPECTING WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
FOR TONIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES AND A COLD FRONT DROPS 
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK ACROSS THE LAKE AS A WARM FRONT 
TURNING WINDS SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...TK