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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCLE 191624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1124 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weak and dry cool front across the lake will push inland
through the rest of today. High pressure will build back over 
the region later today and Monday then a cold front will cross 
the region on Tuesday. Another cold front will sag south near 
Lake Erie early Thursday before lifting north as a warm front 
Friday, bringing a chance of showers and storms to the region.


With this midday update...have lowered sky cover for the
remainder of the day. Temperature tweaks were minimal. Mid 
clouds dissipated quick and the shallow fog/low stratus from 
Findlay to Marion to Mount Vernon has been quickly eroding too.
Best warming so far has been in the sliver from Toledo to 
Medina north of the early morning stratus under full sun...where
temperatures are reaching into the mid 50s before noon. Have 
started to see a wind shift to the northwest along the immediate
lake shore from Cleveland eastward...that will mark the end of
the warming. Other than the lakeshore...temperatures from the
upper 50s to lower 60s is reasonable.

With high pressure building into the area for tonight...winds
will turn out of the north this evening.

Drier air, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow 
temperatures tonight to fall to the lower and middle 30s.


A surface high will be moving off to the northeast of the area
Monday, which will turn the winds back around to the east by
late morning and the southeast by the afternoon. Temperatures
will still be about 15 degrees above normal, though the lake
shore will stay a little cooler.

A cold front will arrive Tuesday bringing rain showers to the
area. The GFS continues to be 6 plus hours faster than both the
ECMWF and NAM with regards to the timing of the front. Have 
slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit to take more of a 
blend of the NAM and ECMWF seeing as the GFS has routinely been
too fast with frontal boundaries recently. The slower timing
will allow for a little more heating ahead of the front, so
highs should be able to climb into the lower and middle 60s for
most areas.

The front will be well east of the area by Wednesday afternoon
and the remaining associated cloud cover should largely
dissipate by the late-morning or early-afternoon. This will 
allow for plenty of sunshine with breezy southwest winds, 
meaning high temperatures will likely rise into the middle and 
upper 60s. We could very well see some 70 degree temperatures as
well, but will continue to trend higher in subsequent forecasts
if that looks likely.


Not many changes to the long term today as it looks like the surface 
ridge will remain over the region through the end of the workweek. 
As a result temps will remain mild with highs Thursday and Friday 25 
to 30 degrees above normal. Precip chances will return to the 
area during the period as a warm front from a low over the 
Plains lifts across the area. Models still having some 
differences with the main features but most of that should get 
sorted out with later runs. Rain chances will increase Thursday 
into Thursday night with perhaps the best chances during the 
period coming on Friday. By that time the surface low should be 
somewhere over the Central Lakes with a cold front approaching 
the local area. Even the slower ECMWF has the front east of the 
area by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will return to near 
normal behind the front with perhaps some snow showers downwind 
of the lake for the second half of the weekend.


.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Quiet weather continues. A weak cold front will move south 
across the area today. It will bring some mid and high level 
clouds with it but think it is too dry for lower clouds. SW to 
WSW flow will become WNW behind the front and eventually NE 
tonight. Not expecting much more than a few high clouds tonight.
Some patchy MVFR fog has developed in the south this morning 
but should dissipate the next couple of hours. 

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday


Fairly quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie the next few days as 
mild temperatures continue. The flow will become onshore today 
as a weakening cool front pushes south of the lake. Light flow 
is expected tonight with southerly winds redeveloping Monday as
a surface ridge pushes east of the lake. Speeds will increase 
some ahead of a cold front which will cross the lake on Tuesday.
Given the stable situation of cold waters and warm air do not 
think waves will get more than a foot or two. A period of 
westerly flow is expected right behind the front but winds will 
return to the southwest or south by early Wednesday and will 
then remain that way through the end of the period. Do not 
foresee needing any small craft headlines the next few days.




NEAR TERM...Mottice/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Kubina