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Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCLE 280014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
814 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Strong low pressure over the northern Great lakes will move 
across eastern Canada and the associated cold front will move east 
of the area early tonight. High pressure will build across the area 
tonight into Friday. A warm front will develop over the lower 
Ohio Valley Friday night and lift north of the area on Sunday. 
Another strong low pressure system will develop over the 
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and push a cold front across the 
area late Sunday night and Monday.


Received numerous reports of small hail with the thunderstorms
this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will shift east of 
the Pennsylvania counties by around 9 PM and the threat for any
stronger thunderstorms is low at this point. Skies have been 
clearing behind the cold front except in far northwest Ohio 
where stratocu has spread back in associated with the low level 
wrap around moisture. Subsidence behind the front will limit the
expansion of stratocu overnight but we will see high clouds 
arrive from the west so will continue with skies becoming partly
cloudy overnight.

Previous discussion...Plenty of subsidence following the front 
and the stratocumulus out west seems flat and diurnal looking 
and we should see clearing spread across the area tonight. The 
air mass is seasonable (I keep having to remind myself that it 
is April) and with winds lightening before daybreak we should be
able to sneak down into the mid 40s in most areas with some 
lower 40s in the cooler spots. high clouds will begin to 
increase toward daybreak which may keep the bottom from falling 
out on temps.


The fast flow aloft will redevelop as the trough lifts out on 
Friday. Hard to get excited about the prospects for any significant 
showers, at least for Friday. Frontogenetic forcing will slowly 
increase and the jet is slowly progged to lift north across 
the Great Lakes as we go into Friday night and the weekend. Upward 
motion will likely increase in the entrance region of the jet. 
Friday may be one of those days where radar echoes increase but it 
takes a while for much of anything to reach the ground. Will have a 
small chance of showers, mainly across northwest Ohio later in the 
day. The wind field in the mid and lower layers is progged to 
increase significantly Friday night and the threat of showers and 
thunderstorms will increase as a short wave moves east in the 
fast flow. The GFS develops a surface low over the lower Great Lakes 
early Saturday while the ECMWF just drifts the front north and then 
south again. In any case, temperatures near Lake Erie could 
slide back down Saturday afternoon as the flow comes around more 
from the north, the type of pattern where Toledo never does warm up 
during the day.

The ridge builds on Sunday and it looks as if the warm front will 
move north. Temperatures should shoot up in the south flow as 850 mb 
temperatures are progged to rise to 16C or so. Not quite as 
confident farther north at Toledo and Erie where the warm air may 
arrive slightly later in the day so will hedge a  bit on 
temperatures there.

The cold front will approach from the west later Sunday n night or 
early Monday morning from the west and the chance of showers and 
thunderstorms will begin to increase again. Sunday night will be a 
warm night ahead of the front.


The main upper trough over the US will set up over the MS river 
valley into the Great Lakes thru the period. S/W's rotating thru the 
upper trough will induce surface lows that move thru the region 
Monday and again by Thu night while a front remains near the area 
thru the period. Expect good chances for shra/tsra Mon then a lesser 
chance for Mon night thru Thu. Temps will start out near normal on 
Mon then trend below normal for Tue thru Thu.


.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Cold front on the OH/PA border and will move east of the area
within next hours or so taking all the convection with it. MVFR
wrap around will spread over the entire area overnight. Gusty
West winds will gradually diminish after sunset. 

Conditions gradually improve to VFR Friday...but more showers 
and TSRA expect Friday night. 

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat through 
Mon then just showers Tue.


A cold front crossing the lake this evening will veer winds more to 
the west while wind speeds should stay just under that needed to 
produce sca conditions. Weak high pressure moving across Ohio should 
diminish the winds late tonight and cause a backing to mainly south 
for Fri as the front pushes back north of the lake briefly before 
shifting back south across the lake Sat. Winds will veer to north 
then ne sat into Sat night and increase enough to produce sca 
conditions for a while into Sun until the front moves back north 
thru the lake turning winds to south.

South winds will increase Sun night to 30 knots then turn sw then 
west as a deep low passes by and pulls a series of cold fronts 
across the lake Mon. West winds could be near gale force on Tue as 
cool air pushes across the lake.




SHORT TERM...Kosarik