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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 041739
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE 
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA 
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES 
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE OUT FOR MINOR CHANGES. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT READINGS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. STILL EXPECTING A WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA TOWARD EVENING. THIS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING NORTH OF U.S. 30.

PREVIOUS...THE PUSH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BE
SLOWED TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME DIGGING ACROSS MN.
WITH THE UPPER AND MID FLOW FROM THE SW...OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE
PLACE TODAY SO THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SKIMMING THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SOME LATER TODAY.

TEMPS ALOFT COOL IN THE AFTERNOON SO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD CHANGE 
TO SNOW. SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY INTO EARLY 
AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO DROP. BY NIGHTFALL...TEMPS SHOULD 
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. HOPEFULLY...TEMPS WHERE THE 
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS THIS MORNING WILL BE ABLE TO STAY JUST ABOVE 32 
TO PREVENT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING ISSUES.

SNOWFALL BY NIGHTFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO RUN AN INCH OR LESS AND 
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTH AND SE THIRD OF THE CWA...GENERALLY STAYING 
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FDY TO GKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD TEND TO STAY SSE OF A LINE FROM FDY TO 
NEAR ERI THRU 06Z THEN START TO SLOWLY RECEDE SE THE LATTER PART OF 
THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE FAR SE BY MIDDAY THU. 
ACCUMULATION FROM THE OVERRUNNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY RUN AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH AND A HALF OR LESS TONIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU AND HELP 
FROM LAKE MOISTURE MAY HELP TO INDUCE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR 
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND THU BUT ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS 
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY 
DAYBREAK THU THEN ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS ON THU AS THE CORE OF THE 
ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE COLDEST LOWS ARE LIKELY THU 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES HELPING TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS AND 
LIGHTEN THE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST 
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A LITTLE BELOW ZERO.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE 
AREA BY LATE FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH 
AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS FRI WILL MODERATE 
SOME...GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWS 20S ON AVERAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS DROPPING SE NEAR THE 
AREA FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT WITH SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS. 
WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND HOLD BACK THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL 
SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE CROSSING 
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION FRI NIGHT WILL BE TO PUT A SMALL CHANCE IN 
THE NE. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO ROCKET ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOW 
TO MID 30S WHICH WILL GET US WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH 
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME DID NOT GO REAL WARM WITH THE 
READINGS BUT WE COULD GET INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE 
IN THE LOWER 40S.

NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. PLENTY OF HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS SO WEAK AND WITH THE 
RIDGING STRONG WILL JUST HAVE 20% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 
OTHERWISE DRY.

THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND THAT WILL CAUSE 
SOME MOVEMENT IN THE FROZEN RIVER AND STREAMS. WILL BE MONITORING 
THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE TOLEDO WHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 

UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD
WILL REACH FROM THE RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A
STALLED COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF SNOW BEING NEAR AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MARION TO YOUNGSTOWN. KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. 

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LINGERING THURSDAY AND THEN
NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST 
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES IN WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
THE SURFACE. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL 
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE 
WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

IN THE MEANTIME THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT MOVED 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY IN COLD 
ADVECTION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND 
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA