FXUS61 KCLE 270545
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
A cold front near chicago will move across the area tonight followed
by another cold front monday night. High pressure over minnesota
will shift east across ohio wednesday night and thursday then a cold
front is expected to cross the region friday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A line of thunderstorms continues to approach the I-71 corridor.
Things appear to be behaving and have not had any reports of
problems. It appears this line will hold together so will time it
across the area. By daybreak the entire area should be dry. Have
only made some minor adjustments.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There could be a lingering shra in the east in the
morning...otherwise drier air spreading in should produce a dry day
while the warm air still in place allows temps to rise into the
80s...maybe even a 90 in the far west.
The second cold front with the cooler air will drop se thru the area
mon night. There may be just enough lower level moisture collected
with this front to trigger a few light shra in the ne half of the
cwa mon night. This moisture will be reinforced with wrap moisture
for tue to keep a threat for shra then drier air moves in tue night
to start ending the shra threat.
Think wed and wed night will be dry with high pressure building in
from the west but with the presence of an upper trough can't
absolutely rule out an isolated shra in the east.
Temps will be cooler for tue and wed with highs mainly in the 70s
and lows mostly in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term begins Thursday with a surface high across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. Aloft models show a broad upper
trough swinging into the Great Lakes. By 12z Friday the upper trough
should deepen a bit across the region driving a cold front southeast
across the lakes. The front should move into northwest Ohio Friday
afternoon/evening dropping south of the region by Saturday morning.
High pressure will build in from the northwest Saturday afternoon
through Sunday driving winds out of the north. Expect the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Friday and Friday night
as the front approaches and then moves through. A few lingering
showers are possible Saturday afternoon more northeast as this
cooler air moves over the lake.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A few showers and thunderstorms will persist across the region
through 08z, mainly across extreme NE OH and NW PA. Have only
placed a thunder mention in the KERI TAF and some vicinity
showers for KYNG. Showers anywhere else will be very light if they
occur at all.
Otherwise we will await the arrival of a weakening cold front that
will drift eastward across the region through the day. This will
cause winds to shift from the southwest to west as it passes. The
westerly winds may become gusty but do not think gusts will exceed
20 knots at most locations.
Ceilings and visibilities will likely remain VFR through the TAF
period. The only exception may be caused by a brief heavier
shower near KERI through 08z and some patchy non-VFR fog. The fog
will likely be limited to NW OH near KTOL and possibly near KMFD.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in thunderstorms.
A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie tonight after
about midnight. Current SSW flow will turn more westerly behind the
boundary. Winds speeds however should remain 15 knots or less and
headlines are not expected. A secondary push of colder air will move
in Monday night turning winds more northwest however again...wind
speeds should remain 10 to 15 knots Monday before diminishing to
under 10 knots Monday night. Tuesday winds increase to 15 to 20
knots from the NNW and will need to monitor for small craft advisory
potential lasting through Tuesday evening. Wednesday and Thursday
expect generally light flow with high pressure over the lake. Friday
look for another cold front out of the northwest during the
afternoon. Current indications are that wind speeds will remain 15
knots or less. Best chance for thunderstorms will be tonight with
the front as well as next Friday.