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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KCLE 090235
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH OHIO WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. BUMPED UP SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN
THE SNOWBELT AND LOWERED POPS SOME IN THE WEST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AXIS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND
EXPECT NO MORE THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF MAINLY EAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOTS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AND COULD
FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 2
DEGREES C OVERNIGHT. SO WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY CAUSING
RESULTANT TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST AS WELL...THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC
AIR TO BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOTS OF
QUESTIONS WITH THIS PACKAGE. FIRST OF ALL...WHEN WILL THE TRUE COLD
AIR ARRIVE...HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND TO SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT...WILL THE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL COINCIDE WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...WILL THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BETWEEN LAKE
SURFACE AND AIR TEMPERATURE TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND WILL
SHEAR DIMINISH IN TIME TO GET THE LAKE SNOWS GOING. THE OTHER
QUESTION TO CONSIDER IS HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE HAVE IN PRODUCING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

AS OF RIGHT NOW...A POOL OF FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN
TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS GOOD OMEGA AND
MOISTURE LIFT UP INTO THE SNOW GROWTH AREA. MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND A MULTIBANDED
STRUCTURE. DUE TO THE PREVALENT MEAN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WILL SEE A PERSISTENT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY...SINCE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
SUPPORTED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TO ANSWER THE
QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE BANDS SET UP...THAT IS A PROBLEM. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE BANDS WILL NOT REMAIN STATIONARY AND HENCE
WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCHES OR ADVISORIES. 

AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...NEW
ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
WEST. FRIDAY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TRAILING A COLD FRONT.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.  EARLIER MODEL RUNS
WERE BRINGING -32C AT 850MB INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.  THE CURRENT
GFS NOW TAKES THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO NEW ENGLAND HOWEVER THE
ECMWF STILL BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -28C.  THESE COLD CORES USUALLY
TEND TO GO TO OUR EAST SO WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS.  STILL...THE
WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR ZERO OR BELOW IN PLACES. AS FOR THE
WEATHER...TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORT WAVES MAKE PINPOINTING
SYNOPTIC SNOW DIFFICULT HOWEVER THE LAKE IS OPEN SO WITH THE COLD
AIR A LOCK...EXPECT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
SNOWBELT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS
OF SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1 MILE. EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS EXISTED AT
TAF ISSUANCE...EXPECT A LOWER MVFR TO IFR CLOUD DECK TO FILL IN
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO WESTERLY WITH TIME AND INCREASE TO 10-14
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT FLOW TONIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL TURN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. FRIDAY EXPECT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. NO GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...DJB/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK