000
FXUS62 KTAE 251013
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
613 AM EDT Sat May 25 2013
UPDATED...
24hr temp/dew point comparisons indicates that airmass generally
running about 5 to 11 degrees cooler and 8 to 13 degrees drier than
same time yesterday. However, 6 AM EDT inland temps a tad warmer
than forecast, 55 to 60. This likely due to winds remaining elevated
most of night allowing mixing to retard expected temp drop.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
The large scale longwave pattern remains highly amplified with deep
troughs across Pac and Atlc coasts/extreme Wrn Atlc and a ridge
centered over E/Cntrl Plains. This places local area on backside and
near base of trough with cutoff over N England heading offshore.
This allows for strong subsidence and NW steering flow. At surface,
low off Nrn mid-Atlc region with cold front swd parallel to coast
then SWWD across FL Straits. In its wake, large elongated high
pressure ridge building SEWD from Canada across Gulf region.
Increasingly cool and dry NLY drainage flow overspreading local
area. At 3 am EDT, inland sites generally 60 to 65 degrees and are
expected to drop to the low to mid 50s which would approach record
lows for this date.
RECORD MIN TEMPS for this morning May 25th
Tallahassee AP 48 Valdosta 53
Marianna 53 Headland AL 52
Apalachicola 56 Cross City 54
Tifton 52 Moultrie 52
During the rest of today, mid/upper trough will continue to push Ewd
into Atlc. Under deep layer ridging, expect ample sunshine marred
only by some high clouds from distant shortwave. Area will rebound
from cool start with highs expected in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]...
Surface High pressure and a very dry airmass will remain over the
local region. A backdoor cold front will push down through the
Carolina's and into north Georgia Sunday and Sunday night before
stalling. High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s
which is normal. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the
low to middle 50s inland areas and lower to middle 60s along the
coast. Min temps begin to moderate Sunday night with lower to mid
60s for our western zones and mid to upper 50s east.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Friday]...
An upper ridge is forecast to dominate the the southeastern states
through much of next week. This will keep the weather mostly dry
with temperatures at or a little above normal. Guidance suggest
some tropical moisture could move north in to the region very late
in the week or next weekend. However, there is considerable
uncertainty as to the timing of this moisture, so will not include
any PoPs in the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...[through 12 UTC Sunday]
Unlimited vis and cigs are expected through the period. Light NE to
start the period will become E to NE near 10 KT by late morning. A
late afternoon sea breeze (S near 10 KT) is likely at KECP Saturday.
By mid eve, winds will decrease to near calm.
&&
.MARINE...
Exercise caution conditions will continue over the offshore waters
this morning. Otherwise, light to moderate easterly flow will
persist into the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although it won't be as breezy today, it will be drier with at least
6 to 8 hours of RH below 28% and ERC values greater than 37 across
portions of the FL Panhandle as well as Leon and Wakulla Counties
in the Big Bend. So a red flag warning remains in effect for these
counties in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. The airmass will
begin to gradually moisten up across the Panhandle on Sunday but
remain very dry across the Big Bend . ERC values will remain high in
these same areas. A Fire weather watch is now in effect for Sunday
aftn for Leon and Wakulla counties. The airmass will moisten up a
little more on Monday and Red Flag conditions are not anticipated
thru at least the middle of the upcoming work week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are foreseen through next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 54 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 84 64 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 87 59 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 85 55 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 85 52 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 87 54 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 83 63 81 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Central Walton-Coastal
Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-
Inland Walton-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Barry
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
HYDROLOGY...Wool
