000
FXUS61 KCAR 172132
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
528 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZFP W/RAIN MAINLY HANGING ON OVER THE ERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. DECIDED TO GROUP MEZ011,017,032 AND MEZ015-016,031 TOGETHER
BASED ON RADAR AND SATL TRENDS. OTRW...NO CHGS MADE AS FCST RIGHT ON
TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT.
ANY STEADY RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
HOWEVER COULDNT RULE OUT A SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS WRN ZONES AND MDLS ARE SHOWING SOME HINT OF THIS AS WELL.
SHORT WAVE SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUNDAY BEING RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THEY ARE ALL SHOWING A SERIES OF LOWS AND
TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER TRACKING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERNS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGHS AND THE
FORECAST TIMING WILL REFLECT THE MODEL USED. USED THE GFS FOR
SKY...POP...WND...AND QPF. THIS SET UP THE TIMING FOR SHOWERS ALL
DAY WITH AFTERNOON TSTMS MON. USED NAM12 FOR MAX AND MIN TEMP FELT
THAT THE OTHER MODELS WERE GENERALLY TO WARM WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE PATTERN KEEPS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
RESULTING IN CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
INITIATES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WHICH
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EAST NORTHEAST REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA DURING WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWA WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
CHANCE SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR: WILL CONTINUE THE SCA UNTIL 23Z FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SW FLOW LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: THE WND FORECAST INDICATES A STIFF SCA BUILDING
THROUGH THE DAY MON ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 3 TO 5 FT MON MORNING TO 6 TO 9 FT BY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...DUDA
MARINE...DUDA/NORTON
