000
FXUS61 KBOX 180228
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1028 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
LAV GUIDANCE. CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT DIVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT BECOMES ALIGNED
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO IT SHOULD STALL AND REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA. LIMITED CIRRUS MAY WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE...ALLOWING THE WIND TO
BECOME LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES TO COOL TOWARD DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY INTO
THE 30S EAST AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND
OF MOS. MOS DEWPOINTS ARE TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH CURRENT VALUES...SO
FORECAST DEWPOINTS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND THE RGEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER THAN TODAY AND SO IT SHOULD KEEP
WINDS WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING...AND MAX TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW DEEP WE MIX. TEMPS ALOFT...800 MB WILL BE 0 TO -2C.
SO FIGURE ON 850 MB EQUIVALENTS OF 3-5C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS OF
63 TO 67F. SHOULD BE COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND BRING ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT OVERALL A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...SUPPORTING MILDER
MIN TEMPS. MIN TEMP FORECAST COMES FROM A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM. ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WILL PULL A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...PRECIP IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP...SO SHOULD BE MOSTLY JUST A WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS/WINDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME. THERE IS A TIMING DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF DOESN/T BRING
THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT A DECENT PERIOD
OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO SHOW A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA DURING THE TIME JUST BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDER. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY IN THIS LATEST
MODEL RUN...WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHERE THERE IS THE
BIGGEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOME CIRRUS MAINLY
THURSDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY SO NO SEA BREEZE FORECAST FOR BOSTON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS HAVE FROPA OCCURRING EITHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR DURING THE
DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. INCREASING WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL
BRING SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT TO THE WATERS.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THE REMAINING WATERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
LIGHT WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN MA BUT
DROPPED FOR RHODE ISLAND. MANY OF THE SMALLER RIVERS HAVE FALLEN
INTO MINOR FLOOD EXCEPT FOR THE TAUNTON RIVER IN BRIDGEWATER /MAJOR
FLOOD/ AND THE IPSWICH RIVER IN IPSWICH /MODERATE FLOOD/.
ALSO CANCELLED RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR MERRIMACK RIVER AT LOWELL AND
NEPONSET RIVER AT NORWOOD. THE SHAWSHEEN RIVER NEAR WILMINGTON WAS
NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND WILL BE NEXT TO BE CANCELLED AS IT FALLS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION ABOUT THE STATUS OF
INDIVIDUAL RIVERS.
FLOODS OF RECORD AND FINAL PEAK CRESTS/FLOWS FOR RIVER GAGES ARE
DETERMINED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/. FROM A
PRELIMINARY STANDPOINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE FOLLOWING RIVERS MAY
HAVE HAD THEIR FLOOD OF RECORD.
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON...PRELIMINARY CREST AT 14.98 FEET SHORTLY
AFTER 2 PM MON. PREVIOUS RECORD IS 14.50 FEET SET IN JUNE 7 1982.
RECORDS GO BACK TO 1939.
CHARLES RIVER AT WALTHAM...PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES THE RIVER
CRESTED AT 7.56 FEET AROUND 830 PM MON. THE PREVIOUS RECORD CREST
LISTED IS 6.54 FEET SET ON FEBRUARY 3 1976. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1931.
SHAWSHEEN RIVER AT WILMINGTON...PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES A CREST
OF 10.59 FEET AROUND 845 PM MON EVENING. THE PREVIOUS RECORD CREST
LISTED WAS 10.49 FEET SET ON OCT 22 1996. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1963.
THE TAUNTON RIVER AT BRIDGEWATER...AS OF THIS WED MORNING THE RIVER
WAS AT 14.51 FEET AND NEARING CREST. THE PREVIOUS RECORD CREST FOR
THIS LOCATION IS 14.48 FEET SET ON MARCH 20 1968. WITH SOME
GAPS...RECORDS GO BACK TO 1929.
ADDITIONAL NOTES...
NEPONSET RIVER AT NORWOOD...THIS PAST EVENT WAS LIKELY THE HIGHEST
CREST SINCE NOVEMBER OF 1955. IN NOVEMBER OF 1955...THE RIVER REACHED
11.32 FEET. DURING THIS EVENT...THE RIVER REACHED 11.07 FEET AT 215
PM MON.
THE RIVER GAGE EQUIPMENT FOR THE NASHUA RIVER AT EAST PEPPERELL MAXED
OUT YESTERDAY AND COULD NOT REPORT ANY HIGHER. RIVER STAGE FORECASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED FOR THIS LOCATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/KJC
HYDROLOGY...
