000
FXUS64 KLZK 220241 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
940 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST HAVE ENDED...WITH THE
TORNADO WATCH DISCONTINUED. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
ARKANSAS WILL MOSTLY END OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. (46)
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...IN A
REGION OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND OVERALL FORCING. EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS PROVIDED SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RECOVERY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING.
STILL EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF OBSERVED INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
SEVERE/FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...
INCLUDING ARKANSAS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE SUNDAY. LACKING MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS TIME. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 62 83 57 81 / 100 60 10 0
CAMDEN AR 66 85 60 88 / 80 60 10 10
HARRISON AR 56 79 53 80 / 100 30 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 84 58 85 / 100 50 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 85 61 85 / 100 60 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 85 62 88 / 60 70 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 83 57 84 / 100 50 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 80 54 79 / 100 40 10 0
NEWPORT AR 64 84 60 82 / 90 60 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 67 85 62 86 / 80 70 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 83 57 84 / 100 50 10 0
SEARCY AR 64 84 59 83 / 100 60 10 0
STUTTGART AR 66 85 63 85 / 80 70 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...51
