000
FXUS61 KOKX 160224
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1024 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT TO DELAY IN EXPECTED ARRIVAL TIME
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SLOWLY RISE BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS CLOUD COVER MOVES IN AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL NY. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN A
BIT WITH THE HELP OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE SAME PATH.
MODELS STILL LOOK TO BE JUST DRY ENOUGH TO TO KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VICINITY OF OUR NW ZONES NEAR NOONTIME. SOME MOISTURE POOLING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND CAPE DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO A
DEGREE. FORCING WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...NAM HAS THE HIGHER NUMBERS...BUT
WHEN BLENDED WITH GFS...YIELDS MOSTLY LOWER-END LIKELY POPS...WHICH
HAD ALREADY BEEN IN THE FORECAST. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TIMING...KEEPING THE LIKELY POPS RESERVED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WENT WITH MAV MOS FOR HIGHS AS NAM MOS LOOKED TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...ENDING ANY LINGERING PRECIP WEST TO EAST. IT MAY BECOME A
BIT BREEZY LATE WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING.
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH CAA WEAKENING...BUT STILL THINK WINDS CAN GET A
LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING UP
TO A LITTLE ABOVE 900 MB WHERE TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4C.
LOOKS LIKE WE`LL HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING FOR HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. USED MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN...WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THIS FRONT AT A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM US DURING SATURDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES...AND A TROUGH
AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. WILL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DRY AGAIN ON SATURDAY...AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS WITH
THE PASSING MID LEVEL TROF. THE OFFSHORE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS...SO WILL GO WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE
COOLER ON SATURDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS...AND TEMPS ALOFT
COOL DOWN AS WELL. KNOCKED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF GMOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS IN TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH BEHIND IT MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. ECWMF IS SLOWER/WETTER WITH THE FRONT AND SLOWER/COLDER WITH
THE HIGH...WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER/DRIER WITH THE FRONT AND
FASTER/WARMER BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH. COMPROMISE TIMING/STRENGTH
SOLUTION WITH THIS FRONT AND HIGH IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING TROUGH TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW INTO TUESDAY...THEN A STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE TROUGH...HOWEVER SHARP RIDGING BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUICKLY BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY...EXPECT THE EXTENDED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
NORMAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOWS AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH UPPER
20S NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS (TOO
EARLY TO GO THERE YET GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM).
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF NEW YORK CITY WILL OBSERVE MVFR FOG...WITH
KGON POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS. LOW END VFR
TO POSSIBLE MVFR THU MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE TOWARD WESTERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW TRENDS MORE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES TO AROUND
10 KT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO
BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY AROUND THE TIME OF SUNSET.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MONDAY... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY. GUST SW WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT MONDAY.
...................................................
TAF CODE IS CHANGING NOVEMBER 5TH AT 00Z...
PLEASE SEE...
HTTP:/AVIATIONWEATHER.GOV/NOTICE/TAF30.PHP (LOWER CASE)
...................................................
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP THURSDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS. FRONT
CLEARS THE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS
TURN TO THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
TIME FRAME...AND WINDS WILL INITIALLY COME CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT IN FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
IN SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE WATCH III FORECAST
ACCEPTED.
WITH COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE S AND E TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT. GENERALLY UP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DRY THEREAFTER. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
