000
FXUS63 KMPX 120724
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
124 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND HOW IT TRANSLATES
W/NW THIS MORNING...THEN W/SW ACROSS WESTERN FA BY LATER THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT.
REGIONAL WV IMAGERY INDICATED A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSRA ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/EASTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF ELEVATED
CAPE WAS NOTED IN THIS AREA WHICH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. THEREFORE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED
RAIN/SHRA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY INTENSITY BY MID/LATE MORNING. LATER SHIFTS
COULD ADD THUNDER IF WARRANTED...BUT CAPES REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
COMPARED TO THURSDAY MORNING WHERE TSRA WAS MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN FA.
AFTER THIS EVENING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN
IOWA THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY MOVE S/SE WITH THE MAIN FORCING
MOVING AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK LIFT AS
MODELS ARE TRYING TO KEEP THIS MORNING SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TOO WEAK TO CONTINUE HIGH POPS OR AT LEAST LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL AFTER TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES...DRIZZLE OR
VERY LGT RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS WEAK AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET HOLDS ACROSS THE
REGION.
NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK DOES ANY TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR OUR STAGNANT PATTERN TO MODIFY. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR
THE PAST TWO DAYS WHICH INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THIS PATTERN CHANGE MAY CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO COOL AFTER THE 18TH OF MARCH.
ALTHOUGH THE NAEFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WARM PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF MARCH...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT SHIFT BETWEEN THE 18TH AND
24TH WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. ..JLT..
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE TAFS FOR YET ANOTHER
24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD. SFC LOW OVER IA IS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH
WHILE FILLING. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS
THE AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS IN STORE AT AXN/STC/RWF
THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR MSP/RNH/EAU...LACK OF SNOW PACK IS ONCE
AGAIN LEADING TO MORE SPORADIC VSBYS AROUND THESE
TERMINALS...THOUGH EACH WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN
SUB 1/2SM VSBYS. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR GREEN BAY IS DESTINED
FOR THE CWA AFTER 12Z WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL SKIM BY MSP/RNH/EAU TO
THE NORTH AND THEN THE WEST. STC/AXN/RWF LOOK TO GET ANOTHER ROUND
OF MODERATE RAIN WITH THIS AROUND 18Z...BEFORE THIS WAVE SHEARS
OUT OVER WRN MN...LIKELY LEADING TO A PERSISTENCE DZ AT AXN/RWF
PAST 00Z SAT.
KMSP...VSBYS ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI FINALLY STARTING TO GO DOWN
QUICKLY...WITH MSP ALREADY DOWN TO 1 1/2SM. HAVE BROUGHT THE
AIRPORT DOWN TO 1SM INTO THE MORNING...WITH TEMPO FOR 1/2SM FG
BASED ON CONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT. RAIN WITH GREEN BAY SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO GO AROUND THE FIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH SHOULD
STILL SEE A FEW -RA OBS BETWEEN MAINLY 14Z AND 20Z. AGAIN BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY POPPING ABOVE THE 014 LEVEL A FEW
TIMES...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER...CIGS
SHOULD COME RIGHT BACK TO IFR LEVELS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
&&
$$
JLT/MPG
