000
FXUS65 KVEF 201645
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 AM PDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO UTAH TUESDAY WHICH
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&
.UPDATE...CIRRUS IS COMING IN THICKER AND QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. UPDATED SKY GRID THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THIS...AND WILL
MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS FOR TONIGHT WITH THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
253 AM PDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE BETTER
MIXING AND THEREFORE EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACKS INTO UTAH. ECMWF IS STRONGEST
AND FURTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE ENERGY AND DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION
INTO LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
GEM/GFS/NAM ALL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN UTAH AND FOR NOW KEPT THE DRY
FORECAST GOING WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
COULD BRING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE FORM OF INCREASED
WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CURRENTLY...SHOWER CHANCES LOOK BEST
IN THE EASTERN CWA SUCH AS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AN INTRODUCTION OF NORTHERLY BREEZES. THIS LOW AND
A BAJA LOW THEN JOIN FORCES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT BY THAT
TIME...THE CONSOLIDATED LOW IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE IMPACTS TO THE CWA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER STORM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA. THIS ONE LOOKS MAINLY
LIKE A WIND GENERATOR AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION. SEASONAL TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E-NE AT 4-6 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A N-NE FLAVOR EXCEPT
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KTS AT
TIMES TODAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/HARRISON/SALMEN
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
