000
FXUS61 KRNK 170148
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
948 PM EDT TUE MAR 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY NOT AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLEARING HAS REACHED A SUMMERS COUNTY TO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY LINE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING NOT MUCH MORE WESTERN PROGRESS OF THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE.
CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER LOW PRESSURE VCNTY OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT THE OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK...ANTICIPATE A STEEPER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES CYCLE WITH WARM SUNNY AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI SATURDAY WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE
CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EAST KY/TN SUNDAY
MORNING...AND THROUGH THE VIRGINIAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PASSING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...LOOKING AT A FINE DAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. CLOUDS MAY
ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THE DAY AS A WHOLE
LOOKS DRY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD PER INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
MID-CONUS FRONT.
BY SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL TIMING SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EAST DURING THE
EVENING. PENDING ON AMOUNT OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY...CAN'T RULE
OUT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR
NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO INSERT THEM AT SOME POINT PENDING CONFIDENCE
OF THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL TIMING AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG WITH TEMPS PLUMMETING AFTER ITS
PASSAGE. 85H TEMPS ARE PROGGED NEAR M7 DEG C BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
1000-500 THICKNESSES OF NEAR 530. AS SUCH...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WOULD FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS. EAST OF THE
MTNS...DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE...BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KROA...KLYH AND KDAN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MODELS WERE SHOWING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
CLEAR SKY NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT ROA...LYH...AND DAN.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT BLF OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDING WAS
SHOWING FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BLF BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/REB
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PM/REB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/REB
