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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KBIS 220648

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1248 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Issued at 1241 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Contemplated a dense fog advisory tonight for the south central
but decided the dense fog may be more transient as the wedge of 
cool air will see the fog limited to the leading cloud edge and a
few places out ahead. Will issue a special weather statement 
instead. Lowered minimum temperatures southwest which will see a 
few more hours of clear skies tonight. 

UPDATE Issued at 943 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Lowered min temps for tonight across the west, where temps have
dropped under clear skies. Satellite fog product (11 - 3.9) 
continues to show low deck sagging southward, just reaching 
Watford City at 03Z with ceiling broken at 800 feet. High res 
models (HRRR and RAP) continue to bring these low clouds 
southward, eventually across the southwest part of the state 
tomorrow morning. Models also continue to indicate very slowly
improving ceilings central and east through Sunday. With regard 
to fog, still not seeing any significant reductions in visibility.
A few locations across the northwest, such as Crosby were around 
a mile for visibility, otherwise generally 5+ miles. Webcams also 
support this with most locations not showing any large reductions 
in visibility. 

UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

No significant changes with the update. Adjusted sky cover across
west central and southwest ND based on latest obs and satellite 
imagery which indicated more clearing than depicted in the 
forecast. Otherwise, blended the forecast to latest obs, with a 
few locations also running slightly colder than forecast. Main 
issues tonight remain low clouds and fog potential. Currently the 
lowest visibility reported was 2.5 miles at Crosby, 3 miles at 
Harvey and other locations mostly 6+ miles. High res models 
continue to show a gradual improvement in conditions through 
tomorrow, though low ceilings will continue to predominate across 
most of the area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main story for this evening and overnight will once again be
the fog and drizzle. A stagnant pattern continues with very little
wind and mixing. Slick roads and limited visibility will be
possible once again across portions of central North Dakota

Winds are expected to increase Sunday, which should finally kick
out the fog and lift some of the lowest cloud ceilings. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The next chance for snow will be Monday night and Tuesday into 
Tuesday night. The global models continue to track the upper low 
south of the state placing the best chances for accumulating snow 
across far southern North Dakota with an average of about 1 to 2 

The remainder of the week looks marginally cooler with some 
chances for light snow as a ridge builds across the eastern 
Pacific and an h500 trough consolidates across the eastern CONUS 
and Canada. Weak cyclonic flow aloft will support at least some 
light snow. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1245 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR-LIFR stratus impacting KISN-KMOT-KJMS will slowly move south
and encompass KDIK-KBIS between now and 10Z. Stratus looks to
remain over western and central North Dakota through Sunday night.
Southwest North Dakota, including KDIK, will have the best chance
to see the stratus lift during the day Sunday, otherwise MVFR-IFR
or lower conditions prevail through the 06Z period.