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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KBIS 231754
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
EAST TO WEST BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR ECHOS ARE INCREASING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER. THIS IS BELOW
6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLOODING ISSUES. 

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND
EXPECTED SHORT TERM TRENDS. THIS INCLUDED LOWERING POPS A BIT EAST
OF THE MISSOURI AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR A FEW HOUR UNTIL
PRECIPITATION FILLS IN HERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO CONTINUED
TO SLOW THE TREND OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE FAR NORTH. THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS GREATEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT DID KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA FROM MID AFTERNOON ON...AND A MENTION OF POSSIBLY
SEVERE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. BOWMAN COOP OBSERVER REPORTED 0.56 ENDING AT 7 AM WITH
STEADY RAIN CONTINUING. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THE MORNING UPDATE
WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AS DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW FROM CANADA PUSHES INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF THIS WRITING. THE SHOWER/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED/DEEP UPPER LOW
CIRCULATING OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO. A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EVIDENT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PER LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE ROTATING UP FROM KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

MAIN FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE TWOFOLD...MONITORING THE HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH. CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE
TODAY...INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZED IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN
EASTERN WYOMING TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THIS
REGION. IN DOING SO...BRISK NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15KT TO 25KT...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR BISMARCK BY 06Z SUNDAY...THUS
WINDS WILL ABATE SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND
STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. OVERALL TREND
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY IS FOR POPS TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO MINOT BY 12Z SUNDAY. HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DECREASE POPS IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE REMAINING PERSISTENT. 

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH INTO CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY. THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS LAPSE RATES 
ALOFT BECOME STABLE. MODELS PROG SHOWALTER INDICES BETWEEN +6 AND
+10 BY LATE SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE CONVECTIVE TYPE PRIMARILY
BEING RAIN SHOWERS. LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH ON MONDAY.

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY. SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING
THROUGH FRIDAY...LEADING TO A WARMING/DRYING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MAINLY IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. COULD SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE STRONG LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT IFR TO
OCCASIONALLY LIFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WESTERLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ON SUNDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK HAVE KEPT SOIL
MOISTURE ABNORMALLY HIGH ACROSS THE CWA. HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO OVERWHELM THE CURRENT
INFILTRATION RATES OF THE SOIL AND LEAD TO OVERLAND FLOODING AND
CREATE A GREATER THAN NORMAL RUNOFF. THIS ENHANCED RUNOFF RATES
WILL ENCOUNTER ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOW IN NEARLY EVERY
SIGNIFICANT SMALL STREAM AND RIVER IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO
REASONABLE EXPECTATION OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AT A MINIMUM
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...AND MINOR RIVER
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...KS