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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KBIS 032131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

For the near term late this afternoon, a shortwave was seen
approaching Aberdeen with some increase in radar reflectivity's
near Oakes and Ludden. For now, it appears the main swath of
precipitation remains just south and east of the border and will
keep pops out of the southern James River Valley at this time.

Latest water vapor imagery shows our main shortwave trough aloft
now working its way into southwestern Saskatchewan with an
attending surface trough across eastern MT. Radar reflectivity's
were increasing over northeast Mt this afternoon. Isentropic
upglide per GFS 290K pressure surface will continue to propagate
across western and central ND this evening into tonight. Will
maintain a chance of light snow across western and central ND with
a dusting of snowfall, except in the Turtle Mts where up to one
inch is possible.

The light snow exits our eastern zones before daybreak Sunday with
a transitory 700mb-500mb shortwave ridge arriving during the
daylight hours. This will keep western and central ND dry with a
mix of sun and clouds for most of the day before overcast conditions
begin to impinge into northwest ND Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday
will generally be around 30F with mid 30s southwest. This will be
our warmest day for the next several days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Main headline continues to be snow, blowing snow Monday; then
blustery northwest winds and frigid temperatures both leading
towards dangerous wind chills Tuesday through Thursday. Will be
re-issuing an SPS to reiterate and highlight dangerous wind
chills to 30 below zero for Tuesday through Thursday of next
week; and the potential for an advisory or possible blizzard
headlines in our northeastern zones Monday evening through Monday
night. At this time, models show varying placements on where the
strongest forcing will occur. The GFS favors the north, while the
NAM favors a more southwest to northeast alignment. The latest EC
resembles the NAM but with less snowfall. Right now, snowfall
expectations for several inches resides from the northern James
River Valley into the Turtle Mts where 4 to 6 inches is currently
forecast. Elsewhere expect 1 to 3 inches for all but the northwest
and southern James River Valley - where these areas look to miss
the main brunt of the snow. The Baggaley snow model suggests an
advisory is likely in the Turtle Mts with possible Blizzard
conditions. Will let subsequent shifts assess the latest data. For
now, the SPS and HWO/Hazardous Weather Outlook will serve to advertise
the above.

Dangerous cold air/wind chills set in Tuesday through Thursday
with blustery winds through this period. The weather pattern
remains active with possible snow shifting through Friday night
and Saturday, followed up by another system next Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Vfr cigs will trend toward mvfr through Saturday night. A vcsh
was mentioned at all terminals except KDIK. Expect a possible
light period of snow during this TAF period with a dusting of snow