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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KBIS 070543
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SWATH
OF SNOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO RUGBY...AND HARVEY.
WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT IN THIS AREA AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL
SHORTLY GO INTO EFFECT HERE...THUS CURRENT TIMING LOOKS ON TRACK.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT SNOW AMOUNTS
BECOMING LIGHTER TOWARD 12Z SUNDAY AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...A CURRENT LULL IN THE STRONG WINDS WEST
AND CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 35KT. STRONG WINDS WILL RE-EMERGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 12Z- 18Z SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ISALLOBARIC FORCING IN TANDEM WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS.
THE LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER BETWEEN 60-65KT. THUS THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD
STANDING DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED AREA...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55KT WILL EMERGE AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY BEGINNING IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/KISN AND KMOT...AND
PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG WINDS...CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR STATUS WITH SCATTERED SNOWSHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 03Z
MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS