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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KBIS 290900
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. 

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES 
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW 
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF 
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH 
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL 
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT 
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF 
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD 
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS 
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL START MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST FOR KDIK AND POSSIBLY EAST FOR KJMS.
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...KISN-KBIS-KMOT...ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN STRATUS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH