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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KBIS 030758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

INCREASED FIRE DANGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS WFO AND SPC FIRE WEATHER
DESK...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SOUTH...INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA...DOWN INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN
IDAHO...LEAVING ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AT
THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO...WILL PUSH ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A BLEND OF THE LATEST MET/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL APPROACH 25-31 KNOTS IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES...MAINLY FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH...THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER EAST
AND BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA MILD AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR THURSDAY...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO ALBERTA CANADA WILL PROPAGATE TOWARDS AND INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS H85 TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN +18C AND +22C THURSDAY.
THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80F EAST
TO 86F WEST. 

ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER AND MORE
UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GRIDDED
MODEL BLEND YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONCUR WITH THIS
IDEA WHICH BLENDS THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF. 

FOR THE WEEKEND...A CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY GRADUALLY EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. IN DOING SO...A REX BLOCK FORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWEST LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER
PATTERN WILL BE THE THEME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PER GFS/ECMWF...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SWEEP THROUGH WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER WITH THE THIS SCENARIO
AS IT TRIES TO INCORPORATE MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW...WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS THAT MOISTURE
SOURCE MOVING EAST WITH LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
OVER ALL SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WIND FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS OVER KJMS IN THE 18Z TO
23Z TIME FRAME...TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 01Z WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH
DAKOTA FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL OCCUR FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE LATEST FORECAST CO LOCATES THESE
STRONGER WINDS WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 17-22
PERCENT RANGE FOR THREE TO SIX HOURS...MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA
FOR THESE AREAS. SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SPECIFIC COUNTIES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...ZH
FIRE WEATHER...ZH