Get Forecast For:
Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KBIS 210932
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
432 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH FAST NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA. POTENT LITTLE SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

FOR TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHERLY AS WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH FAST
UPPER FLOW. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION TODAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE WEST KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH CALMER. THIS WILL AGAIN
BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION
GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY...THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION).

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVER THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO OUR REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH A QUASI-BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE. DRY WEATHER WILL RESULT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST
AND WARMER SOUTHWEST WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. 

BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK ALLOWING ENERGY
ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ONWARDS. BEST CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN
BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A STRONGER WAVE ACROSS THE STATE.
A NICE WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON POSSIBLE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY.  

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WITH SOME -SN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 3. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25 PERCENT AND A NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH DRY VEGETATION TO RESULT
IN ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY A ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED OVER
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND MAY
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NDZ023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...NH/JJS