000
FXUS65 KTWC 151632
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED OCT 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NOT AS DRY AS 24 HRS AGO WITH SURFACE DEWPTS INTO THE
20S AND 30S WITH A BIT OF AN EASTERLY GRADIENT OUT OF NEW MEXICO.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CU FIELDS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. WAS ANOTHER COOL MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS PICKED UP TO
BREEZY LEVELS IN SPOTS.
OTHER THAN LOWEST LEVELS NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TO
A RIDGE OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE IN THE WARMING TREND...PROBABLY
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE NOW BUT STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS BEHIND INITIAL
MOS DEPICTIONS.
RIDGE WILL PHASE EASTWARD AND BUCKLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSES TRY TO COME IN OFF THE PACIFIC. STRONGER
TROUGH POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT TONS OF TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY ISSUES AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES WITH EASTERLY GRADIENT BRINGING WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES...SLACKING OFF
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
